Could third-party candidate RFK Jr. make a splash in battleground state North Carolina?
History shows it's unlikely a third-party candidate will successfully take the 2024 presidential election, but Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s push for ballot access in North Carolina, and nationally, has called into question the effect his presence could have on the race this November.
The first and last time an independent candidate won the presidency was in 1789 when George Washington was elected. The odds for third-party candidates in North Carolina haven’t been too promising. In 2020, no third-party candidates reached 1% of support in North Carolina.
Despite what history shows, third-party candidates continue to run, and some say their place on the ballot can impact the outcome of elections by pulling votes away from the two main parties.
RFK Jr.’s party “we the people” has enough verified signatures to gain ballot access in North Carolina, according to a North Carolina State Board of Elections petition search, which showed his campaign collected 18,693 valid signatures.
Originally joining the race as a Democrat and later switching to Independent in October, RFK Jr., 70, who used to work in environmental activism and is an outspoken critic of vaccines, has garnered more media attention than other third-party candidates, said Christopher Cooper political science professor at Western Carolina University and director of their public policy institute.
His political legacy, with his uncle being former President John F. Kennedy and his father being the former Sen. Robert F. Kennedy, as well as his actress wife, Cheryl Hines, could all be contributing to this, Cooper said.
“Everything about Robert F. Kennedy Jr. says attention and says interest,” Cooper said.
RFK Jr.'s running mate: Who is Nicole Shanahan, RFK Jr’s running mate? Details on VP pick and why she's in Maine
Cooper said in a state like North Carolina where elections are won by small margins, anything has the possibility to impact the outcome.
“I think in a state as tight as North Carolina, anything and everything has the potential to shake it up,” Cooper said.
But by how much could RFK Jr. impact the results? Meredith College poll Director David McLennan said in an April poll report that his impact will likely be mild.
“The demographic groups that most favor Kennedy – young voters, Black voters, and moderate voters – typically support Democrats, like Joe Biden,” McLennan said in the poll’s report. “However, the Trump lead over Biden has been reduced to 2 percent – inside the confidence interval of the poll. Joe Biden has improved his poll numbers with self-proclaimed Democrats, so with just under 200 days until Election Day, we may see the Kennedy effect as marginal.”
Some are still concerned about his impact. Buncombe County Democratic Party Chair Kathie Kline urged voters not to vote for Kennedy in an opinion piece for the Asheville Citizen Times writing “Voting for him could indeed have unintended, disastrous consequences."
Candidate guide: Who is running for president in 2024? No, it's not just Biden and Trump.
Any significant support Kennedy has now will likely substantially dwindle as November approaches, Cooper noted. This phenomenon could be due to voters becoming more aware of the stakes of a close election and learning more about a candidate.
Cooper said voters typically like a candidate less the more they get to know them.
“It’s easy to think that they’re going to be you know the answer to your problems when you don't know much about them,” Cooper said.
North Carolina is just one among a growing list of states like New Hampshire, Utah, Nevada, Hawaii and South Carolina that RFK Jr. has secured enough signatures in. His campaign is actively petitioning for signatures in several other states as well.
The state board of elections still needs to approve the signatures from the county boards before RFK Jr. can officially appear on the Tar Heel ballot.