Kamala Harris' momentum narrows Donald Trump's lead in election betting odds
Bettors are seeing the Presidential race narrow as Democratic nominee Vice President Kamala Harris' momentum has cut into Republican nominee former President Donald Trump's lead at the betting window.
The two major candidates started the campaign with Trump leading Harris at -200 to +200 at U.K. bookmaker Bet365. After the two weeks of campaigning Trump still leads but is only -138 to Harris' +110. The current odds suggest that bettors give Trump a 58% chance of winning the White House to Harris' 47.6%.
The swing in the odds occurred ahead of Harris' vice-presidential pick and the Democratic National Convention, two events that commonly give a candidate a boost in the polls.
The vice-presidential betting market narrowed further Monday as Bet365 made Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro (D) and Minnesota Governor Tim Walz (D) the only options on their board. Reuters reported that the two governors are Harris' finalists for the pick.
Presidential election betting odds as of August 5
Bet 365
- Donald Trump: -138
- Kamala Harris: +110
Bovada
- Donald Trump: -120
- Kamala Harris: EVEN
BetOnline
- Donald Trump: -120
- Kamala Harris: +105
Oddschecker
- Donald Trump: -111
- Kamala Harris: +124
How accurate have betting odds been in past Presidential elections?
The betting favorite has only lost twice since 1866, according to the Conversation.
The two upsets came in 1948, when Harry Truman (D) beat eight to one odds to defeat Thomas Dewey (R), and in 2016, when Trump overcame seven to two odds to beat Hillary Clinton (D).
Biden was the betting favorite in the 2020 race, holding the pole position with Oddscheker from May through November.