Presidential betting odds: Harris, Trump tied after DNC betting surge
A post-DNC bump has yet to be priced into the betting market in the presidential race as Vice President Kamala Harris is either a narrow favorite or in a tie with former President Donald Trump at the betting windows.
The gap between the candidates at bookmakers is variable as offshore bookmakers Bovada and BetOnline have Harris as a clear but narrow favorite while U.K. bookmakers Bet365 and Betfair have the odds at a tie.
The equivalent of over $5.125 million was wagered at U.K. bookmaker Betfair Exchange during the week of the DNC.
The action, which U.S. bookmakers cannot take part in legally, moved definitively toward the vice president during the Harris-Walz ticket's honeymoon but has cooled in recent weeks.
Keeping up with Election 2024? Sign up for Paste BN's On Politics newsletter.
Presidential election odds timeline
Presidential election odds as of August 26
Betfair Exchange
- Kamala Harris: +102
- Donald Trump: +105
Bet 365
- Kamala Harris: -110
- Donald Trump: -110
Bovada
- Kamala Harris: -115
- Donald Trump: -105
BetOnline
- Kamala Harris: -120
- Donald Trump: EVEN
Oddschecker
- Kamala Harris: +102
- Donald Trump: +106
How accurate have election odds been in past presidential elections?
The betting favorite has only lost twice since 1866, according to the Conversation, a nonprofit news organization.
Harris held the narrowest lead over Trump of any recent Democratic nominee at the 75-day mark, sitting at -102 at U.K. bookmaker Betfair Exchange. By contrast Hillary Clinton's odds stood at -323, but Clinton went on to lose the election in one of the two times the betting underdog won on election night.
The other upset came in 1948, when Harry Truman (D) beat eight-to-one odds to defeat Thomas Dewey (R).
Bettors did not put their money on Minnesota Governor Tim Walz when the market opened for Harris' vice-presidential pick. Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro and Arizona Senator Mark Kelly were the punter's favorite through most of the veep-stakes, with Walz shooting up the odds boards in the final days.