After VP debate, JD Vance cements status as MAGA heir apparent in 2028

COLUMBUS, Ohio - When JD Vance took the debate stage on Tuesday night in New York, he didn't waste a beat before introducing himself to the American people.

A working family raised him. His mother and grandmother, who he calls Mamaw, required food assistance and Social Security to make ends meet. The G.I. Bill funded his college education after he served in the Marines, which included a tour in Iraq.

"I stand here asking to be your vice president with extraordinary gratitude for this country, for the American dream that made it possible for me to live my dreams," Vance said, before answering the moderator's original question about turmoil in the Middle East.

Over the next 90 primetime minutes, Vance, 40, showed a genial side of himself as he sparred in Midwestern fashion with Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz during the CBS News Vice Presidential Debate. It was an opportunity for the Ohio senator to share his story and boost his brand with voters, many of whom knew little beyond his viral comments about "childless cat ladies." His favorability rating among voters improved by 9 points after the debate, according to a CBS News poll.

Then "Vance 2028" started trending.

Republicans including Vance are focused on the immediate goal of getting their 2024 nominee former President Donald Trump back to the White House. But Vance’s debate performance washed away doubts about his readiness for the job of No. 2 – and president, if necessary – despite questions early on about whether Trump had buyer’s remorse.

It also reinforced his position as the natural heir to the movement Trump started − a ladder that’s easier to climb if he’s the sitting vice president in four years.

“He has definitely put himself, in my opinion, not only as the frontrunner for 2028 but the face of the new generation for the Republican Party,” said Mike Hartley, an Ohio-based GOP consultant who’s not affiliated with the Trump-Vance campaign.

Hartley compared the debate to Barack Obama's 2004 Democratic National Convention speech that launched the former president's meteoric political career: "There are times when people rise to the occasion, are provided the opportunity, and show themselves very well. I think Tuesday’s debate for JD was that opportunity, and he delivered.”

More Mr. Nice Guy?

Vance's affability surprised many who are accustomed to seeing a more combative, controversial candidate on the campaign trail − someone who takes an adversarial approach to interviews and once said Vice President Kamala Harris can "go to hell.". Vestiges of that Vance surfaced on Tuesday: He refused to say Trump lost the 2020 election and blasted moderators for clarifying that Haitian migrants in Springfield, Ohio, are in the United States legally.

"The rules were that you guys weren't going to fact check," Vance said.

For the most part, however, Vance gave off Midwest nice and sought to paint himself as relatable. He mentioned his three children multiple times, at one point saying he hoped they were asleep. He talked about his mother's struggle with medical debt and boasted about his wife, Usha Vance, to drive home a point about child care.

Vance also humanized the issue of reproductive health by invoking a woman he knows who sought an abortion because she was in an abusive relationship. Vance, like other Republicans, has sought to moderate his stance on the procedure even though he supported federal restrictions during his 2022 Senate campaign.

"As a Republican who proudly wants to protect innocent life in this country, who proudly wants to protect the vulnerable is that my party, we've got to do so much better of a job at earning the American people's trust back on this issue where they frankly just don't trust us," he said.

To people in Vance's inner circle, the thoughtfulness and empathy he displayed Tuesday is part of who he is. But it was also by design: A source close to Vance, who wasn't authorized to speak publicly about debate preparations, said both the Ohio senator and Trump-Vance campaign didn't want to come out guns blazing and ready to launch personal attacks against Walz.

The noticeable age difference between Walz, 60, and Vance was a factor, the source said. But Vance's advisers also believed that Walz wouldn't be antagonistic and wanted to meet him on that level.

"Our feeling was that insofar as we matched (Walz's) temperament, we were going to come off ahead," the person said.

Republicans see Vance as face of future

What wasn't on Vance's mind during the debate Tuesday, his campaign said: 2028.

"The only thing Sen. Vance is thinking about is making sure we put President Donald J. Trump back in the White House," spokesperson William Martin said. "We have less than 35 days left in this election and there is absolutely nothing that will distract us from that goal. If we come up short this November, what happens in 2028 won’t matter because this country will be beyond saving."

A Vance presidential nomination in 2028 depends on several factors, chief among them whether he and Trump win next month.

Republicans are headed toward a bruising primary in 2028, and Vance would have more of an edge against other contenders as vice president. In the event of a Harris win, the senator's brand could take a hit if he becomes a scapegoat for Trump's defeat − though observers generally agree vice-presidential candidates aren't that impactful.

“If Trump loses, my guess is that the Vance VP ticket will not look good in hindsight," said Kyle Kondik, managing editor for Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics.

Hartley said Vance has proven himself enough to be a formidable candidate in 2028, even if he doesn't make it to the White House next year. But there's also the question of Vance's personal ambitions: The young father of three young children could opt instead to seek reelection in the Senate and kick a run for higher office down the road.

Former Ohio Congressman Tim Ryan, who unsuccessfully ran against Vance in the 2022 Senate race, said Democrats would welcome the chance to challenge “(maybe) the most unlikable guy in politics."

"He is almost giddy that Trump may lose and he will be in a good position to run," Ryan said in a text message. "But he is all in on Trump, Jan. 6, Springfield, Ohio, that if Trump loses, the party will move on from Trumpism and it will be an anchor around Vance's neck."

Ahead of the debate Tuesday, Rep. Byron Donalds, R-Fla., told reporters in New York that Vance is part of a new generation with a vested interest in the country's future.

"JD, like myself and so many others, you know, we're kind of the future − not just of the party, but future leadership in our country," Donalds said. "At a time where you're starting to see that transition in politics, I think he brings that perspective."