Bice: Tammy Baldwin says Senate race with Eric Hovde is tighter than public polls suggest
A month ahead of the Nov. 5 election, a new poll said last week that Democratic U.S. Sen. Tammy Baldwin leads Republican challenger businessman Eric Hovde by 7 points.
Baldwin is not buying it.
And neither is Hovde.
For once they agree on something.
But the question is: Do they both have a personal and political incentive to ignore the poll's findings?
After a Milwaukee event this weekend, Baldwin confirmed a story in Axios last week that there are "growing Democratic fears over how quickly the Wisconsin Senate race is tightening."
"I've seen my internal polls," Baldwin said. "It's very close."
Sources said the internal polls show Baldwin up 2 percentage points over Hovde. Also, on Tuesday, the Cook Political Report changed its rating on the race from Baldwin's being a slight favorite to the contest now being a "toss up" between the two.
Baldwin said that is why the Senate Leadership Fund, a PAC aligned with Republican Senate Leader Mitch McConnell, has reportedly pledged to put $17 million in TV, radio and digital ads into her race in the coming weeks.
She said Hovde, a banking and real estate mogul, also decided to drop another $3 million in the race. He has loaned his campaign about $13 million as of July, according to federal reports.
"I assume that Mitch McConnell has seen the same numbers," Baldwin said. "I mean they poll, too, right? I assume they've seen the same numbers we're seeing internally."
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Not that Baldwin is being overwhelmed with cash so far. Outside groups have dropped more than $100 million on the race, with Democratic organizations holding a slight lead over Republicans. Baldwin's campaign had accounted for $42 million in past advertising and future reservations, and Hovde was at about $20 million by the start of the month.
Still, Democrats are expecting Republicans to surpass them in outside spending, despite Democrats having had the edge for a while now
A spokesman for Hovde said they are seeing the same things in their polling as Baldwin's team.
"Eric agrees this is a jump-ball race with the momentum clearly on his side," said Zach Bannon. "All internal polls show it's a 1- to 2-point race."
But national polls have been spread out in their results on this race in recent weeks.
The Cook Political Report’s most recent numbers show she has a 2-point lead over Hovde at 49% to 47%. A survey by the Trafalgar Group put Baldwin up 2.3%.
At the other end, the New York Times/Siena College poll reported that Baldwin was ahead by 8 percentage points. Redfield & Wilton Strategies put out a survey Monday saying Baldwin led by 47% to 42%.
No poll has Hovde out in front.
Charles Franklin, the director of the Marquette Law School Poll, said his results are not out of line with what other pollsters are reporting. Over the course of the year, the Marquette poll has found Baldwin up between 4 and 7 points.
"You look at the recent polls in the race across everybody, and it's from 2 to 8 points," Franklin said. "And we're at the high end of our own range and at the high end of the current range. So if the campaigns want to say that the race is a lot closer than that, fine with me."
There is reason to think the race ultimately will tighten, Franklin added.
Most statewide races in Wisconsin are close, and Baldwin's double-digit victory in 2018 over former GOP Sen. Leah Vukmir was unusual for many reasons, he said. For instance, it was part of President Donald Trump's midterm election, the race featured a divisive Republican primary, and Vukmir had poor name recognition throughout.
National Republican Senate Committee Chair Steve Daines dismissed concerns in mid-September when discussing polls showing Hovde trailing. Daines referenced past races in which Wisconsin Republican Sen. Ron Johnson was trailing in the polls but eventually won. He called the Baldwin-Hovde contest a "neck and neck race."
"These races all tighten up in the end. This one will, too," Daines said. "This seat is a single-digit race. One, two points — it's the polling that we're looking at that I believe. It's not unusual for these candidates in states like Wisconsin, Republicans, to be behind up until Election Day, as evidenced by Ron Johnson."
Democratic Senate Campaign Committee Chair Gary Peters, speaking broadly about Senate races in a call with reporters last week, said: "If you look at all of our races, they're right where we actually thought we would be at this moment, which means they're all very close. That's how we expected to run these races."
Franklin noted that candidates release the results of their campaign-funded polls only when it suits their purposes. They don't release this information routinely.
He noted that both Baldwin and Hovde have been sending out fundraising appeals saying this will be a close race. It's not a surprise they are releasing their internal tracking poll results when they confirm that idea.
"The bottom line is, campaigns — actually on both sides here — have an incentive to say this is a really close race because it does help with fundraising but it also helps motivate your supporters and get them out," Franklin said.
Indeed, Baldwin admitted she is worried about spending over the next month.
Unlike her opponent, she said, she is not independently wealthy and can't write a big check to pay for TV and digital advertising. Hovde has reported his net worth is between $195.5 million and $564.4 million, which would make him one of the wealthiest members of the Senate if elected.
"I know the big picture, and I assume this is a real race," Baldwin said. "This is a real race. And we're doing everything we can to figure out how not to be totally overwhelmed on the airwaves."
(This story has been updated to add new information.)
Lawrence Andrea of the Journal Sentinel staff contributed to this report.
Contact Daniel Bice at (414) 313-6684 or dbice@jrn.com. Follow him on X at @DanielBice or on Facebook at fb.me/daniel.bice.