Betting odds swing toward Donald Trump over Kamala Harris. Here's why, what it means
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The gambling lines for the 2024 presidential election are swinging toward former President Donald Trump. Offshore bettors continue to drive up that probability because they predict Trump has a better chance of winning battleground states.
As of Thursday at 7 a.m. ET, Trump's probability of winning topped 61% on Polymarket, a crypto trading platform, for the first time since President Joe Biden dropped out of the race. Betfair Exchange, the biggest U.K. peer-to-peer betting platform, predicted on its temperature gauge Thursday morning that Trump would likely win. Presidential election betting can't be done legally in the U.S.
Trump's odds of winning rise based on battleground polling
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So are bettors seeing something that pollsters aren't? Polymarket warned Tuesday in its weekly "Oracle" newsletter that big differences in betting markets aren't the same as wide margins in polling:
"While Trump’s lead is the largest it has been since the summer, it’s important not to overstate its significance. A 55-45 prediction market edge is not nearly as strong as a five-point polling lead," the newsletter said. "Small moves in the polls are magnified into large swings in the odds."
Trump's and Harris' probability of winning each state
Bettors push Trump's probability of winning higher than in previous elections
Though betting on Trump and Harris has diverged significantly in recent days, it is far from where Trump stood on the opening day of the Republican National Convention. On July 16, his odds of winning were more than 70% on Polymarket and Betfair Exchange.
As of Thursday at 7 a.m. ET, Trump held a 22-percentage-point edge over Harris on Polymarket. Betfair Exchange's market had a 20-point gap. The gap between the candidates remains the narrowest of Trump's three runs, according to Betfair's historical data. On Oct. 17, 2020, bettors gave Biden a 64% chance of winning and a 28-percentage-point gap.
How accurate have election odds been in past presidential elections?
The betting favorite has only lost twice since 1866, according to the Conversation, a nonprofit news organization – in 2016 when then Secretary of State Hillary Clinton was favored over Trump throughout the campaign, only to lose and in 1948, when Democrat Harry Truman beat 8-to-1 odds to defeat Republican Thomas Dewey.
Other presidential race indicators
- Allan Lichtman, the historian renowned for accurately predicting 9 out of the 10 most recent presidential elections, has shared his prediction for this year's White House race. He forecasts that Vice President Kamala Harris will win. In a video first reported by The New York Times, Lichtman explained that his prediction is based on a set of thirteen "keys" or true-false questions assessing the strength and performance of the incumbent party in the White House.
- Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are neck-and-neck in the 2024 race for the White House. In a Real Clear Politics average of national polls, Harris leads Trump by 1.7 percentage points. It's even closer when it comes to polling averages from the battleground states. Trump leads Harris by 1.1 percentage points in Arizona, for example, and Harris leads Trump by 0.3 percentage points in Wisconsin.
When is Election Day 2024?
Election Day is Tuesday, Nov. 5.
When are the polls open in Delaware?
Polling places in Delaware will open at 7 a.m. and close at 8 p.m.
How to find your polling place in Delaware?
You can check the Delaware Department of Elections website and enter your address and it will locate your polling location
What do I need to vote in Delaware?
At the polling site, a worker will ask you for proof of identity. Permitted forms of ID include:
- Valid Photo ID
- Copy of utility bill
- Bank statement
- Government check, paycheck, or other government document that displays your address
Is there early voting in Delaware?
Yes, early voting for the general election begins Oct. 25 and runs through Nov. 3. Early voting sites are open the first five days of early voting from 11 a.m. to 7 p.m. and the last five early voting days from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. All registered voters can vote early.
Early voting sites in Delaware
New Castle County
- Appoquinimink State Service Center, 122 Silver Lake Road, Middletown
- Christina Crossing, 501 S. Walnut St., Suite 13, Wilmington (tentative)
- Claymont Community Center, 3301 Green St., Claymont
- Department of Elections Warehouse, 220 Lisa Drive, New Castle
- Hudson State Service Center, 501 Ogletown Road, Newark
- Police Athletic League, 3707 N. Market St, Wilmington
Kent County
- BPOE #1903 Elks Lodge, 200 S. Saulsbury Road, Dover
- Crossroad Christian Church, 4867 N. Dupont Highway, Dover
- Frederica Senior Center, 216 Market St., Frederica
- Harrington Parks & Recreation, 114 E Liberty St., Harrington
Sussex County
- American Legion Post 28 Millsboro, 31768 Legion Road, Millsboro
- Department of Elections Warehouse, Georgetown, 542 S. Bedford St., Georgetown
- Department of Elections Warehouse, Seaford, 200 Allen St., Seaford
- Ellendale Fire Hall, 302 Main St., Ellendale
- Laurel Fire Hall, 205 W. 10th St., Laurel
- Margaret H. Rollins Community Center, 101 Adams Ave., Lewes
- Millville Community Center, 32517 Dukes Drive, Millville
- Roxana Fire Hall, 35943 Zion Church Road, Frankford
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