Kamala Harris' lead over Donald Trump shrinks in new Reuters/Ipsos presidential election poll
Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are in a nearly tied race, according to a new poll by Reuters/Ipsos out Tuesday.
The poll of 1,150 adults nationwide including 975 registered voters, conducted over three days ending Sunday, showed Harris leading Trump 44% to 43%. Among respondents who appeared likeliest to vote, Harris led Trump, 47% to 46%, Reuters reported.
Harris' one-point lead falls within the poll's margin of error of approximately three percentage points.
Harris has led in every Reuters/Ipsos poll of registered voters since July, when she entered the race in place of President Joe Biden, but the outlet reported the margin of her lead has shrunk steadily since late September.
"Harris' marginal lead over Trump might not be enough to win the election even if it holds through (Nov.) 5," Reuters stated.
Trump polled better on handling immigration and the economy, and Harris polled better on handling political extremism, though her lead on the issue is also shrinking, according to Reuters.
Things to keep in mind about polling
A poll's margin of error describes how accurately we can count on the survey results being representative of the entire population.
When a candidate's lead is "inside" the margin of error, it is considered a "statistical tie," according to Pew Research Center.
Pew has also found the majority of pollsters have changed their methods since the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, where Trump's performance was significantly underestimated.
National polls usually indicate the candidates' standing for the popular vote, but the election will likely be decided by seven swing states due to the Electoral College system. A recent Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll of the swing states also indicates the candidates are in a tied race.
Kinsey Crowley is a trending news reporter at Paste BN. Reach her at kcrowley@gannett.com, and follow her on X and TikTok @kinseycrowley.