8 seats that could swing control of the House of Representatives in 'safe' states

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While gallons of ink have been spilled to cover the race for the presidency, control of the House of Representatives could define how either former President Donald Trump or Vice President Kamala Harris will govern after taking office on Jan. 20, 2025.

Republicans currently hold an eight-seat majority in the lower chamber after a so-called "red wave" failed to materialize during the 2022 mid-term elections in the wake of the overturning of Roe v. Wade.

A key collection of consequential seats can be found in states that are considered "safe" in the presidential race. Cook Political Report rates many of the seats in the category as "toss-ups," meaning the candidates have an approximately equal likelihood of winning.

The importance of these seats was thrown into sharp relief when a ballot box in Washington's 3rd district was set ablaze, destroying hundreds of ballots in an arson case last week. Both candidates in the race condemned the violence

Here are eight congressional elections in "safe" states that could swing the House of Representatives.

Congressional districts that could swing the House

Poll leads and via 538 average, unless noted

California 13th district

• Harris polling lead: 23.8%
• Cook Political Report rating: Toss-up
• Incumbent: John Duarte − R (freshman)
• Challenger: Adam Gray − D
• Most recent poll results: Gray 44.4% − 42.4% Duarte (USC/CSU Long Beach Center for Urban Politics and Policy/Cal Poly Pomona; margin of error ±5.6%; released Sept. 24)

California 22nd district

• Harris polling lead: 23.8%
• Cook Political Report rating: Toss-up
• Incumbent: David Valadao − R
• Challenger: Rudy Salas − D
• Most recent poll results: Valadao 45% − 45% Salas (Emerson/Nexstar; margin of error ±5.2%; released Sept. 30)

California 27th district

• Harris polling lead: 23.8%
• Cook Political Report rating: Toss-up
• Incumbent: Mike Garcia − R
• Challenger: George Whitesides − D
• Most recent poll results: Whitesides 44.4% − 43.1% Garcia (USC/CSU Long Beach Center for Urban Politics and Policy/Cal Poly Pomona; margin of error ±4.3%; released Sept. 24)

California 45th district

• Harris polling lead: 23.8%
• Cook Political Report rating: Toss-up
• Incumbent: Michelle Steel − R
• Challenger: Derek Tran − D
• Most recent poll results: Tran 44.8% − 43.3% Steel (USC/CSU Long Beach Center for Urban Politics and Policy/Cal Poly Pomona; margin of error ±4.4%; released Sept. 24)

Colorado 8th district

• Harris polling lead: 17% (via ActiVote poll released Oct. 20)
• Cook Political rating: Toss-up
• Incumbent: Yadira Caraveo − D
• Challenger: Gabe Evans − R
• Most recent poll results: Caraveo 44% − 44% Evans (Emerson/The Hill/Nexstar; margin of error ± 4.2% released Oct. 2)

Nebraska 2nd district

• Trump polling lead: 18%
• Cook Political rating: Toss-up
• Incumbent: Don Bacon − R
• Challenger: Tony Vargas − D
• Most recent poll results: Vargas 49% − 46% Bacon (NYT/Sienna; margin of error margin of error ± 4.1%; released Sept. 28)

New York 22nd district

• Harris polling lead: 15%
• Cook Political rating: Lean Democrat
• Incumbent: Brandon Williams − R (freshman)
• Challenger: John Mannion − D
• Most recent poll results: No independent polls available

Washington 3rd district

• Harris polling lead: 20%
• Cook Political rating: Toss-up
• Incumbent: Marie Gluesenkamp Pérez − D (freshman)
• Challenger: Joe Kent − R
• Most recent poll results: No independent polls available

Things to keep in mind about polling

The margin of error describes how accurately we can count on the survey results being representative of the entire population.

When a candidate's lead is "inside" the margin of error, it is considered a "statistical tie," according to Pew Research Center.

Pew has also found the majority of pollsters have changed their methods since the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, when Trump's performance was significantly underestimated.