A 'blue dot,' a Senate surprise and a vulnerable House seat: which Nebraska races to watch
This election, Nebraska has been in the national spotlight multiple times, including for competitive national races and its quirky electoral vote system.
From efforts by national Republicans and former President Donald Trump to change the state's electoral vote distribution in April and September to Vice President Kamala Harris and other Democrats garnering energy in momentum in an otherwise bright red state, Nebraska cemented itself in the national political conversation this election.
Beyond the presidential race, voters in the Cornhusker State will also decide on three U.S. House races. two U.S. Senate seats and six ballot measures ranging from abortion access to medical marijuana legalization. Here's which races to watch in Nebraska as the election comes to a close.
Nebraska's 2nd District Electoral vote
As the polls close on Tuesday, eyes will be on Nebraska's 2nd District as it could help give either candidate a boost in the event of a close Electoral College outcome.
Maine and Nebraska are the only states with a split vote system where electoral votes are allocated to the winner in individual districts. For example, in Nebraska, two of the five electoral votes are awarded to the candidate who wins the most votes statewide. The other three go to the winners of each of the state’s three congressional districts.
Although the Cornhusker State is deep red, the 2nd Congressional District, which surrounds Omaha and its suburbs, has gone to Democrats twice, including former President Barack Obama in 2008 and President Joe Biden in 2020, creating the term “blue dot.”
If Harris won the Rust Belt states of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, while Trump captured the Sun Belt states of Arizona, Nevada, Georgia and North Carolina, the Nebraska vote would determine whether Harris won 270-268 or whether the race ended up a 269-269 tie.
And if the Electoral College is tied, the House of Representatives selects the winner, with each state delegation getting a single vote - a scenario that would likely favor Trump.
Since joining the race, Harris has been polling ahead of Trump in the district, leading him by 12 points in a New York Times/ Siena College poll released last week. Surrogates from both campaigns, including Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, Second Gentlemen Doug Emhoff, Trump's running mate, Sen. JD Vance and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. have visited the district to shore up support for both candidates.
A flip-able House seat
Another race receiving national attention in the Cornhusker state is the 2nd District's Congressional election, where Republican Rep. Don Bacon is defending his seat against Democratic challenger, state Sen. Tony Vargas. Bacon is one of a handful of House Republicans who are vulnerable in this election. His seat is one Democrats hope to flip in their path to gain control of the House.
Bacon first beat Vargas in 2022 by nearly 3 points, but in recent months, polling has swung in favor of Vargas and the race has shifted from a "lean Republican" rating earlier this year to a "lean Democrat" this fall, according to the nonpartisan Cook Political Report. Both candidates have raked in millions in campaign funding and hope that a presidential election year will boost voter turnout for either candidate.
For both Vargas and Bacon, campaigning in the deep purple district has placed their focus on kitchen table issues including the economy, immigration and public safety, rather than spending time highlighting wedge issues. It has been a race to the middle for both, who have rolled out their own cross-party endorsements in the last months of the election.
In September, Bacon announced an endorsement from Ann Ashford, the wife of late former Democratic Rep. Brad Ashford, who lost his seat to Bacon in 2016. A little over a month later, Vargas brought forward his own slate of Republican voters who supported him.
A Senate surprise
One of the most surprising races in the 2024 election popped up in Nebraska this fall when former union leader and independent candidate Dan Osborn closely trailed Republican Sen. Deb Fischer in multiple polls.
In a state where Republican victories are almost always a given, Nebraska is now one of the top Senate races to watch in the Nov. 5 election as its outcome could determine which party controls the upper chamber of Congress.
A recent New York Times/Siena College poll puts Osborn just two percentage points behind Fischer, 46% to 48%, with 5% of likely voters in Nebraska either undecided or refusing to answer. Other political tracking organizations, including the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, updated the contest to “leaning” versus “solidly” Republican.
Osborn, a U.S. Navy and Nebraska Army National Guard veteran, was a little-known candidate in the state just months ago, but now poses a credible threat to Fischer's re-election. Wanting to remain truly independent, Osborn has said he won't caucus with either party in the Senate if elected and has not disclosed which presidential candidate he will vote for.
Fischer, a former rancher and Nebraska state senator, is running for a third term. She campaigned minimally for most of the election year, but came out in full force against Osborn in September when his popularity popped up on the radar. Since then, national Republicans have put millions in funding into the race to discredit Osborn as "too left-leaning" for Nebraska.
Dueling abortion-related ballot measures
Abortion is on the ballot in states across the country, but Nebraska is the only place with dueling measures on the issue.
One of the measures sponsored by Protect Our Rights, a coalition of pro-abortion rights, including the local Planned Parenthood affiliate, would establish a "fundamental right" to abortion up to fetal viability, typically 24 weeks, and to protect the mother's life or health after that.
The other initiative known as Protect Women and Children, backed by a group of anti-abortion doctors, would ban abortion after the first trimester, with exceptions for medical emergencies, rape or incest - similar to the state's existing 12-week abortion law.
Millions of dollars have been poured into this race by both local and national organizations, including hefty funding from Nebraska Sen. Pete Ricketts, who is backing the Protect Women and Children measure.