US presidential election odds: See whether Trump or Harris is favored on Election Day
A portion of former President Donald Trump's betting lead over Vice President Kamala Harris returned on Election Day as voters headed to the polls.
Trump stood at -175 to Harris' +150 at U.K. bookmaker Bet365 on Tuesday evening, an improvement for Trump compared to the -138 to +120 the race stood at Monday morning. Trump had led by as much by -188 to +150 one week ago.
The lead recovered at the other betting houses that Paste BN has regularly surveyed throughout the campaign.
Questions about the accuracy of the action, which U.S. bookmakers cannot legally take part in, have been raised as major bettors appeared to have influenced the lines at cryptocurrency-based prediction markets.
The Wall Street Journal reported in October that a major surge in Trump's odds coincided with $30 million in Trump bets from four Polymarket accounts − redi9999, Theo4, PrincessCaro and Michie. Each account was funded by deposits from the same U.S. crypto exchange called Kraken, according to Arkham, a firm that analyzes blockchain and crypto activity.
Miguel Morel, founder of Arkham, told the Journal: “There’s strong reason to believe they are the same entity.”
Polymarket confirmed to CNBC that the accounts belonged to a French national with "extensive trading experience and a financial services background."
Although not illegal, or necessarily nefarious, the Journal reported that some observers see the bets as part of an influence campaign to generate social media buzz and the perception that Trump is ahead. Polymarket has said that there was no evidence supporting that theory.
Here are the betting odds on the 2024 U.S. Presidential election.
Presidential betting odds timeline
Presidential betting odds on Election Day
Bet 365
- Donald Trump: -175
- Kamala Harris: +150
Bovada
- Donald Trump: -165
- Kamala Harris: +135
BetOnline
- Donald Trump: -150
- Kamala Harris: +130
Oddschecker
- Donald Trump: -150
- Kamala Harris: +160
Election results are coming in. Sign up for Paste BN's On Politics newsletter for breaking news and exclusive analysis.
How accurate have election odds been in past presidential elections?
The betting favorite has only lost twice since 1866, according to the Conversation, a nonprofit news organization.
The most recent upset came in 2016 when then Secretary of State Hillary Clinton was favored over Trump throughout the campaign, only to lose.
The other upset came in 1948, when Democrat Harry Truman beat eight-to-one odds to defeat Republican Thomas Dewey.
(This story has been updated with new information)
Contributing: Joey Garrison