Race for Grijalva's seat: Why special election in Arizona draws national attention

A liberal southern Arizona congressional district will move into the national spotlight as a hard-fought Democratic primary election contest reaches its final days.

The election, called to replace the late Rep. Raúl Grijalva after his death in March, has become a three-way race between the late congressman's daughter, Pima County Supervisor Adelita Grijalva, former state Rep. Daniel Hernandez and Deja Foxx, a 25-year-old social media strategist.

Whoever wins the Democratic primary on July 15 is expected to enjoy a glidepath to victory in the Sept. 23 general election.

The impact of the race will reverberate beyond Arizona.

Its outcome is expected to modestly tilt the balance of power on Capitol Hill, putting more pressure on Speaker Mike Johnson at a time when his Republican majority is already razor-thin.

And as one of the few elections unfolding during an off year, the primary could provide clues as to Democratic voters' mood at a time when their 2024 election losses and President Donald Trump's second-term actions have put them on the back foot.

National groups have gotten involved in the race, dishing out endorsements and pouring money into the race as the candidates sprint towards the finish line.

Here's why the election in Arizona's 7th Congressional District will matter nationwide.

Arizona election will fill 1 of 3 House vacancies

The special election will fill one of three vacancies in the U.S. House, all created after Democratic members of Congress died in office. The other two seats were held by Rep. Gerry Connolly of Virginia and Rep. Sylvester Turner of Texas.

Some candidates have hammered the topic on the Arizona campaign trail, voicing a frustration shared by rank-and-file Democrats around their party's advanced age.

Trump's budget bill passed "not because Democrats didn't fight hard enough, but because three Dem congressmen died, while in office, and handed MAGA Republicans the advantage," Foxx said in a campaign video.

"Nobody was voting on our behalf."

The Republican caucus has seen turnover, too. Reps. Matt Gaetz and Michael Waltz, both of Florida, resigned as they were under consideration for jobs in the Trump administration. Their seats have since been filled.

Even with the Democratic vacancies, the GOP still has one of the slimmest majorities in U.S. history, with 220 Republicans and 212 Democrats, for a total of 432 House members.

Filling the seat puts pressure on House Speaker Mike Johnson

With such tight numbers, Republicans can afford only three defections to pass a piece of legislation with a majority vote.

Filling Grijalva's seat won't change that margin — with one more Democrat in Congress, Republicans can still afford to lose three votes — but it will put pressure on Republican leadership nonetheless.

It means less breathing room if any Republican is absent from a vote, or if a Republican abstains, as some did leading up to passage of the Trump-backed budget bill.

National players jump into the race

The race has drawn attention, and money, from some national players.

The political wings of the Congressional Progressive Caucus, League of Conservation Voters, and Working Families Party have made large financial expenditures in support of Grijalva, the race's presumed frontrunner.

So has a political group linked to progressive Rep. Pramila Jayapal, D-Washington.

Grijalva has gotten endorsements from nationally known figures including Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vermont, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-New York, and the Progressive Caucus chair, Rep. Greg Casar, D-Texas.

Foxx has gotten a boost from David Hogg, the activist and former co-vice chair of the Democratic Party, who roiled the party apparatus when he supported challengers to Democratic incumbents. Hogg's political group, Leaders We Deserve, has spent six figures in support of Foxx and has endorsed her, too.

The actress Busy Phillips posted online in support of Foxx days before the primary.

Hernandez has been endorsed by several Democratic U.S. House members, including Rep. Ritchie Torres of New York and Eric Sorenson of Illinois.

Primary could offer an indicator of party's mood

Some national observers are looking to the Arizona race as a tea leaf of Democratic voters' mood.

Democratic socialist Zohran Mamdani's upset victory in the New York City mayoral primary was widely seen as a sign that liberal voters have a growing appetite for candidates who buck the party establishment.

That sentiment is expected to ripple through southern Arizona but, compared with other races, it's not as clear which candidate it will benefit.

Grijalva has the backing of well-established Democrats, including U.S. Sens. Mark Kelly and Ruben Gallego, and has been criticized by campaign rivals for being part of a political "legacy." But her leftward tilt puts her far from the party's ideological center of gravity.

Hernandez has distanced himself from the Tucson political establishment, hammering the sales tax that voters resoundingly defeated at the ballot box early this year, which many Grijalva allies supported, though his more moderate platform puts him closer to the center of the Democratic Party.

Foxx is a first-time candidate and self-styled political outsider, but there's not much ideological daylight between her and Grijalva, the presumptive frontrunner.

The eventual nominee's margin of victory could affect whether, or how energetically, other candidates try to challenge them in the 2026 election cycle.

House clerk: Swearing-in date yet to be determined

The race will come to a close with the general election in late September, but it is not yet confirmed when, exactly, the winning candidate will take office.

Swearing-in dates aren't set until after an election takes place and state officials have informed the U.S. House of the results of the election, the U.S. House clerk told The Arizona Republic.

Historically, special election winners have assumed their new job in a matter of days or weeks.