Villaraigosa for Calif. Senate could shine light on Latino voters

This post was updated:

Antonio Villaraigosa's announcement that he will actively explore running for the U.S. Senate in California could focus the spotlight on young Latino voters — a key voting bloc in 2016.

Villaraigosa, a former Los Angeles mayor and speaker of the California assembly, made his intentions known in a statement posted over the weekend on Facebook. He would be the most prominent Latino in the race to succeed fellow Democrat Barbara Boxer in 2016 — when turnout among Hispanic voters would also be crucial in the presidential race.

"Too many Californians are struggling to make ends meet, pay the bills and send their kids to college," Villaraigosa said. "They are looking for progressive leaders in Washington who will fight for them."

Set aside, for now, that Villaraigosa has stated he would like to run for governor someday.

About 14 million Hispanics live in California, making up 38% of the state's population. But they represented only 17% of the state's likely voters in 2014, according to the Public Policy Institute of California.

There is a geographic advantage, however, among those likely voters that favors Villaraigosa, who left the Los Angeles mayor's office after two terms in 2013. Nearly 4 in 10 likely Latino voters reside in Los Angeles, according to the Public Policy Institute. Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom and Attorney General Kamala Harris, who have not yet declared their intentions about the California Senate race, are both from San Francisco.

Latinos also have the highest share of likely voters under the age of 35 — a coveted age group in a presidential election.

Villaraigosa would not have a clear shot, especially if Newsom or Harris are part of what could be a crowded field. The top two finishers in a primary regardless of party affiliation advance to the general election.

When he left the Los Angeles mayor's office, voters said education, the city's budget deficit and economic opportunity had declined under Villaraigosa's watch, according to a USC/Los Angeles Times poll taken at that time.

Villaraigosa also has some well-known personal baggage, stemming from a relationship with a TV reporter that led to his marriage falling apart. He also has the lowest approval ratings, compared to Newsom and Harris, in a USC/Los Angeles Times poll conducted in October.