Kirkpatrick's Senate bid leaves wide-open race for House seat

Democratic Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick's decision to run for Senate, challenging GOP Sen. John McCain, throws open the 2016 race for one of the most competitive House seats in the nation.

The absence of an incumbent in northern Arizona's 1st District race will likely attract a bigger field than in years past. But many potential candidates, caught off guard by Kirkpatrick's surprise Tuesday announcement, said that before making a decision they would likely wait for a looming U.S. Supreme Court ruling that could lead to the Republican-controlled Arizona Legislature redrawing the state's congressional boundaries.

Candidates may wish to see whether their homes fall within the new district and how far it tilts toward the GOP.

National Democrats said they aren't worried about holding onto the seat, despite not having a candidate in place. Kirkpatrick plans to help with recruitment.

"Democrats know what it takes to win in this district, as we have proven repeatedly," Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee spokesman Matt Thornton said in a statement. "We are confident we will have a strong candidate who will keep this district in the Democratic column in 2016."

Republicans see the shakeup as a ready-made chance to flip the district, after failing the past two cycles. The Cook Political Report, which performs nonpartisan political analysis, found that only three of 188 House seats held by Democrats are more Republican than the 1st District.

"No matter how they try to spin it, this is a huge setback for House Democrats. The 1st District is a prime pickup opportunity for Republicans in 2016," Zach Hunter, a spokesman for the National Republican Congressional Committee, said in a written statement.

So far only one candidate, Republican Gary Kiehne, has launched a 2016 campaign.

Kiehne, a hotel operator, rancher and oilman, poured about $400,000 of his own money into the race last election and lost the primary, barely. He ran into trouble over controversial statements on the campaign trail.

Reached by phone, Kiehne would not comment on Kirkpatrick's Senate run, directing questions to campaign consultant Chris Baker.

"We've always believed she was vulnerable, and her decision to run for the U.S. Senate is evidence of that," Baker said by email. "The Kiehne campaign liked the way the race was setting up for 2016 before Kirkpatrick's decision, and we feel the same way now."

For more on other potential candidates, see The Arizona Republic.

Contributing: Mary Jo Pitzl of The Arizona Republic.