Focus group leader: Trump isn't going away
ALEXANDRIA, Va. — They're pessimistic about the nation's future. Disgusted by politicians. Anxious about the federal debt. Worried about national security and terrorism. Angry about illegal immigration.
They're Donald Trump voters, and they say they'll stick with him to the end.
Republican pollster Frank Luntz assembled a 29-person focus group Monday night to assess the political strength of the New York billionaire who has risen to the top of Republican preference polls.
Luntz's bottom line: Trump's support is "absolutely real," committed, and probably durable, despite intense Republican opposition to the businessman's style, lack of political experience and virulent attacks on critics.
"He is not going away," Luntz said. "He's got his base, and his base cannot be broken."
Gathered in a conference room near Washington, D.C., Trump backers gave a variety of reasons for their intense support. Negative news reports about Trump didn't faze these voters because they don't trust the news media, Luntz pointed out.
Luntz, the organizer of the focus group, did polling for Ross Perot during a 1992 independent presidential campaign that pulled 19% of the vote. But the Trump phenomenon is different, he said.
Many of Perot's supporters backed him in opposition to the political system; more of Trump's supporters like him as an individual. "This is much deeper and more intense that Ross Perot," Luntz said.
Luntz and Trump have some history. During a forum in Iowa this summer, Luntz asked Trump the question that led to the billionaire's comment that John McCain was a hero "because he was captured. I like people who weren't captured." Trump, meanwhile, has attacked Luntz on his Twitter feed.
After conducting the focus group, Luntz said he has been surprised by Trump's rise in the polls, but it is now a political fact of life. The billionaire has a base of support that could range from 20% to 30%, a huge number in a race with up to 17 candidates.
Trump's position will change as candidates drop out, given the fact that polls also show heavy opposition to the businessman among Republicans. It's hard to figure how Trump might fare in a one-on-one race with Jeb Bush or one of the other Republican candidates.
Luntz said it's still too early to predict that Trump will be the Republican presidential nominee, but "it's now totally conceivable he will be."
He added: "His support is much more solid than I ever would have expected."