For the Record: Can Marco Rubio win?
There are three reasons to major in journalism: No math and no science. So it’s OK – you can be a little dubious while we use polls and delegate math to tell you what the Time Zone Tuesday results really mean.*
*Even if we get the math right, we’ll probably still be wrong. We newsies are wrong a lot these days.
HEY, MARCO, DID YOU DROP OUT YET?
Marco Rubio was supposed to be the establishment’s savior, but now (if you believe the unnamed sources) even his advisers are pressing him to throw in the towel before next week’s primary in Rubio's home state of Florida, where the latest Quinnipiac poll shows Donald Trump in a comfortable lead. Rubio’s campaign says that’s crazy talk: They’re in it to win it! Nevertheless, it’s a fair question whether “death watch” coverage becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy. After all, were any of us surprised by the time that Ben Carson and Jeb(sad emoji) Bush dropped out?
PLAYING THE NUMBERS GAME
Now, about that numbers game. In previous states, not winning wasn’t all bad: Candidates could still suck up some delegates, and as we told you recently, what really matters is your delegate count. But now we’re getting into the winner-take-all states, where second place truly is the first loser. That’s a big deal for Rubio in Florida, which has 99 delegates, and for John Kasich in his home state of Ohio, which has 66. If neither wins those states, they’re done.
Even if they do win, neither Rubio nor Kasich will have enough delegates to immediately catch Trump or the dark horse in all of this, Ted Cruz. It also would be impossible for Kasich and improbable for Rubio to secure the 1,237 delegates necessary to lock up the nomination. Realistically, the only way either could move on to November is via a brokered convention, which most likely would tear the party in two. That’s why the media is freaking out about all of this.
So, why isn’t there nearly as much talk about a brokered Democratic convention, particularly when Bernie Sanders keeps winning states like Michigan that he was supposed to lose? Probably because there is little agreement on how close the matchup truly is. Hillary Clinton has a hefty delegate lead, even when you factor out the superdelegates that have pledged support to her. But unlike the GOP, Democrats continue to award delegates proportionally throughout the primary, which means even if Sanders loses states to Clinton, he could still pick up delegates if the contests are close. In other words, stay tuned.
MORE FROM THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL
- Democratic Debate 8 happened, and surprise! No one talked about Sanders' manhood -- thank goodness (Paste BN)
- Carly Fiorina makes surprise endorsement of Ted Cruz. A few days from now, will she adopt Chris Christie’s shell-shocked look? (Paste BN On Politics)
- Those steaks Trump used to tout his business acumen? They’re not his, and you can’t actually buy them (Paste BN On Politics)
- There’s a Republican rift in Ohio, and it centers on Kasich’s support for Common Core and Medicaid expansion (Cincinnati Enquirer)
- So many people voted in Michigan’s Tuesday primary that some precincts ran out of ballots (Detroit Free Press)
- Ohio’s GOP ballot is really confusing. Does that mean the candidate with the smartest voters wins? (Mansfield News Journal)
HITLER? NO, IT WAS ALL JUST GOOD FUN
Apparently, Donald Trump doesn’t get on Facebook much. Video of his supporters raising their right hand to pledge their Trump allegiance was all over the place, and the comments were generally, “OMG, are they doing some sort of Hitler salute?” When asked about it on “The Today Show,” Trump seemed surprised that anyone would make that comparison, saying it was all just good fun. Naturally, the salute got turned into a gif, and – OK, well, this version is kind of funny.