For the Record: Wisconsin won't end it

It’s another primary day!

This time we head to the enchanted Land of Cheeseheads for a big day for both parties. Well, sort of. Let’s dig in and explain:

THE SPOILS

Wisconsin is the only state voting today, and the pledged delegate count is relatively small: 42 up for grabs for the GOP and 86 for Dems. So, again, win or lose, no one will clinch the nomination or drop out today.

What makes Wisconsin noteworthy is that neither frontrunner is projected to win there. Ted Cruz is ahead of Donald Trump by as much as 6 percentage points, depending on which opinion poll you like, and Bernie Sanders is probably up over Hillary Clinton by a small margin, though the opinion polling in that race is more of a wash.

FOR DEMOCRATS

Many election observers think Sanders will pull off a slim victory, given Wisconsin’s demographics and that independents are allowed to vote. But he needs more than a slim victory to turn the delegate tide. As we’ve noted ad nauseam (emphasis on the nausea, because math = headache for journalists), Democrats award delegates proportionally, so Sanders has to win by a landslide – sort of how he did in Alaska, Washington and Hawaii – or at least win by hefty enough margins to secure 58ish percent of the remaining pledged delegates to secure the nomination.

FOR REPUBLICANS

Wisconsin's Republican delegates are winner-take-all (mostly). It’s winner-take all statewide and by congressional district, so if Cruz happens to win statewide but get edged in a congressional district, he could lose out on a delegate or two. Trump seems to think it’s all over here if he sweeps (but it’s not). However, if Cruz nets all 42, the delegate split between Trump and Cruz gets even tighter, and that increases the likelihood of a contested convention this summer (dun, dun, dun). Which means party chaos and maybe even thermonuclear war (just kidding … we hope).

JUST SAY NO (AGAIN)

Speaking of which: How do you know Republicans really aren’t excited about their choices? When House Speaker Paul Ryan starts running out of ways to say he is not, nor ever will be, a candidate for president. So, seriously, stop asking, OK? It reminds us of that scene from “Dumb and Dumber” when Mary tells Lloyd his chances of being with her are about one in a million. “So, you’re telling me there’s a chance. Yeah!”

MORE FROM THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL

• Perhaps in an effort to avoid thermonuclear war, some Republicans are now urging people to call it an open – as opposed to contested – convention (Paste BN) 
• Kasich tells New York audience he’s in it to win it, even if he didn’t really campaign in Wisconsin (The Journal News) 
• Aide says Hillary Clinton is obsessed with food. Somewhere, a consultant urges Clinton to post more food pics on Facebook (Paste BN)
• Indiana’s sole May 3 primary vote will bring lots of press to a state historically seen as a “procedural hurdle” (Indianapolis Star)

IF YOU STILL HAVEN’T VOTED

Not sure which presidential candidate to choose? Twitter user Chris Lay summed it up a week ago in this handy flow chart. It's totally still relevant.