Poll: Trump narrows Clinton's lead to 7 points in Michigan
Donald Trump has significantly cut into Hillary Clinton’s sizable lead in Michigan, but he still is facing an uphill battle with voters between now and Election Day if he is to take a state that has been a key part of his strategy for winning the White House, a new Detroit Free Press/WXYZ-TV poll shows.
The exclusive poll done for the Free Press, WXYZ-TV (Channel 7) and their outstate partners by EPIC-MRA of Lansing showed Clinton leading Trump 41%-34% in a four-way race that also includes Libertarian Gary Johnson and Green Party nominee Jill Stein.
That 7-point edge for Clinton over Trump, a Republican businessman, casino developer and reality TV star, is down from what had been an 11-point margin earlier this month. But it still is slightly higher than the 6-point advantage President Obama had over former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney — a native of metro Detroit — at this point in Michigan four years ago. Obama went on to win by 9 points.
This is a much different race than that one, however, given that both candidates continue to have high unfavorable ratings — 53% for Clinton, 61% for Trump — in this most recent survey. The number of undecided voters — 13% — also is more than double what it was toward the end of October four years ago.
That uncertainty could allow Trump’s supporters to argue that Michigan is still up for grabs. But with less than two weeks remaining in the campaign, there is little direct evidence to prove so in a state where no Republican nominee has won since 1988, and where Trump has trailed in virtually every poll taken for months.
“He has seen some improvement from the last survey, but seven points is still significant,” said EPIC-MRA pollster Bernie Porn, who said younger, less active voters may come off the sidelines and serve to build Clinton’s lead. A turnaround for Trump, he said, “would be one of the most remarkable comebacks in history.”
For the poll, EPIC-MRA surveyed 600 active and likely voters using live interviewers and a random sample that included 30% cellphones between Saturday and Monday. The poll has a margin of error of 4 percentage points, though that would be higher for subsets of specific voter demographics such as gender, race or regions.
Michigan’s polls appear to be following a trend across the U.S. with Trump narrowing Clinton’s advantage in Pennsylvania, Florida, New Hampshire and other battleground states, but with the Democrat maintaining what appears to be enough of an edge to win barring a collapse in support. Trump, meanwhile, has taken to characterizing polls showing him behind as "phony,” though he trumpeted them when they have showed him ahead.
For more on this poll, see the Detroit Free Press.