A wind gust of 209 mph in California? It could take months to verify the potential record-breaker

When the wind blows, the records will rock. But only if you can prove that the wind was actually blowing as hard as you think it was.

A purported 209-mph gust of wind - a potential record-setter - at a California ski resort has created quite a bit of bluster, leading to the resort briefly shutting down and weather authorities trying to figure out whether the gust actually ever happened.

The investigation to verify Sunday's gust is underway. It's just one investigation — albeit one that'll take longer — of many the National Weather Service engages in during its quest for accurate distribution of information in age where inaccurate weather reports can easily gain traction. 

No one is ruling out the possibility of such a gust, which would put it on a par with Category 5 hurricane power. But It's "highly unlikely" a gust in the area was that strong, Craig Shoemaker, a Sacramento-based meteorologist with the the National Weather Service, told Paste BN in a phone interview.  

California's current wind record is 199 mph. The news of Sunday's wind burst trended heavily on Facebook and throughout social media.

The gust was recorded by Kirkwood Mountain Resort in Kirkwood, California. It was recorded by equipment not maintained by the National Weather Service, Shoemaker said. The NWS receives more than 200 million weather observations nationwide each day, Susan Buchanan, director of public affairs for the NWS, said in an email. 

The NWS maintains more than 900 Automated Surface Observation Stations (ASOSs) across the country, Buchanan said. 

"For every one of those, there are likely dozens, if not hundreds, of additional platforms reporting weather conditions," she said. "Many of those we have access to — to use with caution."

Kirkwood officials say they are not just blowing smoke.

Vail Resorts, Kirkwood Mountain Resorts' parent company, will defer to the National Weather Service to verify the accuracy of the reading, spokesman Russell Carlton said in an email to Paste BN. Carlton said the instrument used at the site is able to record wind gusts over 200 mph. 

Carlton added, "Our weather capturing instruments are vital to the data our resort collects in order to safely operate in our high alpine environment. Their primary function is providing our mountain operations teams with the important weather data needed to make resort operation decisions." 

Dawn Johnson, a senior meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Reno, Nevada, said it'll take months to verify the wind speed of the gust. She said a gust that powerful was absolutely possible, and reports of damage had rolled in as of Monday, but it's too early to be sure. 

"Looking at the other signs that were there that day, I would it’s possible," she said in a phone interview. "I can’t say for sure. I wouldn’t say no, either." She added damage assessments are underway and the California State Climatologist will be involved. 

While the investigation into the gust is underway, there are skeptics.

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Shoemaker is exercising caution looking at the reports from Kirkwood Mountain Resort. 

"Looking through the data, it seems like there are several errors with that site," he said. 

"For instance, it’s currently reporting 92% relative humidity, and it's reporting 100 mph sustained winds and 160 mph wind gusts. That just wouldn’t happen."

Buchanan said NWS can't "police social media" for inaccurate reports, but it does what it can to corroborate weather information that's distributed via weather spotters, high-tech tools and information from local partners (like emergency management).

"While there are many more good observations/reports than bad, it is something our forecasters need to be aware of, and check for, when there is something questionable being reported," she said. 

For Shoemaker, the relative humidity was just one issue that caused him to question the potential record-breaking gust. He added the station was reporting sustained winds of more than 100 mph for roughly 12 hours. For comparison, that's in the range of a Category 2 hurricane. 

The station also reported a 82 mph wind gust on Feb. 5, which, according to Shoemaker, "was not a particularly-windy day." 

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The state's wind speed record was set in 2017 when a 199 mph gust was reported at the Alpine Meadows Ski Resort, which is less than 100 miles away, Shoemaker said. The strongest gust reported at that resort Sunday was 125 mph, which raises further questions about whether there was 209 mph gust somewhere relatively close, he said. 

“You would expect them to be higher," Shoemaker said about Alpine Meadows. "At least closer to the 209. They are some distance apart, but not a crazy amount of distance." 

Johnson said it took 10 months to verify the 199 mph wind gust. Shoemaker said he was part of the committee that verified the record gust. 

Buchanan had recommendations on how to verify weather reports, but she said it comes down to what a consumer wants to do with the information they receive.

For example, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Centers for Environmental Information, based in North Carolina, archives official weather observations. Those records are the only ones admissible in court, Buchanan said. 

For just observing the weather, Buchanan said, "The public can be reasonably confident in weather observations being reported by their local weather forecast office and their local broadcast meteorologists." 

She added that while the reliability of weather sensors outside of the NWS-controlled ASOSs can be "suspect at times," there are typically other nearby observations to check against a single piece of information. 

"Rather than 'vetting' random observations seen online, it might be better to seek out what quality-controlled observations are issued/being reported by the NWS, or another trusted source," Buchanan said. 

Shoemaker and Johnson both said the next step would be to see how much damage the ski resort sustained. If the damage matches the strength of the winds reported, then the NWS would keep digging into the reported gust. 

"Obviously, if they had this type of wind sustained for as long as it has been, there would be significant damage to the ski resort there," Shoemaker said. "We’re talking about winds that are stronger than the strongest hurricanes. 

"It’s questionable to us whether that sensor would even still be there if they had 209 mph winds. That it wouldn’t just blow away, like what happens in many really strong hurricanes."