Winter is over (sort of). Is spring weather here for good?
Welcome, spring!
Though the calendar says spring is still a few weeks away, meteorologists have their own definitions of seasons. And by that definition, spring began at midnight Saturday morning as the calendar turned from February to March.
In late February, the nation largely escaped big snowstorms and record-breaking temperatures, but March often comes with variable and extreme weather as the seasons clash between winter's chill and spring's warmth.
This year appears to be no exception. Here's what to know about the spring forecast:
Chances of big Northeast blizzard fade
The big news first:
"We may have dodged our chances for a big blizzard in the Northeast this winter," AccuWeather meteorologist Paul Pastelok told Paste BN. Pastelok said that there will still be incursions of chilly air, including on Sunday.
He said there will also be some snow, as typical March systems come through the heavily populated Interstate 95 corridor from Washington to Boston over the first half of the month.
Pastelok said that unseasonably cold temperatures might make an appearance in the central and eastern U.S. later in the month or early in April, but by that time the main impacts would be limited to cooler, unsettled weather, not bitter, Arctic cold.
Indeed, overall, weather models show that no more Arctic air is forecast to impact the U.S. over the next few weeks, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said Friday. Additionally, models "have shown good consistency in bringing in unseasonably warmer temperatures towards the middle of March, mainly east of the Rockies," NOAA meteorologist Michael Musher told Paste BN on Friday.
Early March weather forecast
The National Weather Service says that much above-normal temperatures will be likely over the Rockies and Plains states on Sunday, which will gradually progress eastward with time. Some of the most unusual warmth – up to 15 to 20 degrees above normal – will be felt across the northern Plains through Monday, the weather service said.
Temperatures across much of the East will be considerably colder than normal on Sunday but should moderate back to normal Monday-Tuesday. By Wednesday, temperatures should be warmer than normal.
By next Thursday, much of the country may be near or within a few degrees of normal, according to the weather service.
Spring weather forecast
"We expect the southern half of the nation to have temperatures most above average from March through May," said Weather.com meteorologist Jonathan Erdman in an online forecast. "That's particularly the case from the Southern Plains into the Desert Southwest."
In the Northwest this spring, "we expect a chilly and somewhat wetter March from Oregon and Washington into parts of Idaho."
A similar forecast was issued by federal scientists at the Climate Prediction Center (see map below).
As for precipitation, heavy rain and potential flooding will be the story in the central U.S.: "The Midwest, particularly the Great Lakes, is the area where our confidence is highest for a wet March through May 2025," Erdman said.
Drought will continue to be a concern in the parched Southwest, which is forecast to see a dry March-May, the Climate Prediction Center said.
Severe weather risk ahead
The first significant threat of severe weather for March will build across portions of the southern Plains and the lower Mississippi Valley on Tuesday before shifting toward the Appalachians, Gulf Coast and Eastern Seaboard on Wednesday, AccuWeather meteorologists warn.
Fortunately, the next couple of systems after that don't look too strong, Pastelok said. He said that while March may not be too active overall for severe weather, activity will pick up in April.