Early hurricane forecast predicts active season with 'multiple impacts' in US
We're now getting a first glimpse at how dangerous the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season might be.
On Wednesday morning, AccuWeather released its forecast, which calls for another active season "with multiple impacts on the United States." The news comes less than two weeks after an unusual and brief tropical disturbance in the Atlantic Ocean signaled that hurricane season isn't all that far away.
The season officially starts June 1.
For now, forecasters are assessing the big-picture climate forces that will soon shape the season.
One of the biggest ones is the cycle between La Niña and El Niño ‒ the temperature of a swath of water in the Pacific Ocean that has a big impact on what happens in the Atlantic in the summer and fall.
Temperatures in that part of the Pacific are leaning toward normal at the moment, which isn't particularly good or bad. It certainly doesn't rule out a devastating season.
In 2005, neutral conditions also occurred in the Pacific ‒ and that year spawned the infamously destructive hurricanes Katrina and Rita, the National Weather Service said in an online report.
But forecasters are watching a variety of other factors, such as water temperatures in the Atlantic basin where storms form. They will be pulling those observations together into additional hurricane season outlooks that will publish in the coming weeks.
What's the forecast for the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season?
Most preseason hurricane forecasts have yet to appear as of late March. AccuWeather's forecast, released Wednesday, calls for 13-18 named storms, of which 7-10 will be hurricanes.
Top forecasts from experts at Colorado State University will be released in early April, while the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's forecast comes out in May. Other forecasts from governmental, academic and research organizations will be released over the next couple of months.
One very early forecast from the U.K.-based Tropical Storm Risk called for a near-average season, with 15 named storms, of which 7 will be hurricanes.
When does the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season start?
The Atlantic hurricane season, which also includes all storms that form in the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America (recently renamed by President Donald Trump from the Gulf of Mexico), officially begins June 1 and lasts through the end of November. The bulk of activity typically occurs from mid-August to mid-October.
The eastern Pacific hurricane season begins May 15 and extends to Nov. 30. Eastern Pacific storms seldom have a direct impact on the U.S., though they often affect Mexico.
What happened in the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season?
With more than 400 fatalities, 2024 was the nation's deadliest hurricane season since 2005, said National Hurricane Center Director Michael Brennan. It was also the third-costliest on record, after 2017 and 2005.
With a U.S. death toll of at least 241, Hurricane Helene was the continental United States’ deadliest single storm since Hurricane Katrina in 2005, when about 1,400 people died.
Other deadly storms in 2024 included Hurricanes Beryl and Milton, each of which killed over 40 people in the U.S.
In all, 18 named tropical storms and hurricanes formed in 2024, which is above the long-term average of 14. Of those 18 storms, 11 of them strengthened into hurricanes.
What's up with La Niña? What does 'ENSO-Neutral' mean?
Last year's hyperactive Atlantic hurricane season received a boost from climate troublemaker La Niña, a cooling of Pacific Ocean water that forecasters now say is weakening. It's being replaced by so-called "ENSO-Neutral" conditions, which mean that ocean water isn't particularly cool or warm.
According to the weather service, hurricanes occur more frequently during the neutral phase (when neither El Niño nor La Niña are in effect) than they do during El Niño.
"Although hurricanes occur more often during La Niña episodes, significant tropical weather events have occurred during the neutral phase," the weather service said in an online report. "For example, the record-shattering 2005 hurricane season that included Katrina and Rita occurred during the neutral phase."
Also, Hurricane Andrew, among the most destructive United States hurricanes on record, made landfall during a neutral phase of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation in 1992, the weather service said.
What are the 2025 hurricane names?
The first named storm of the season will be Andrea, followed by Barry, Chantal and Dexter. Storms get a name when their sustained winds reach 39 mph and attain hurricane status at 74 mph.
What should you do now to prepare?
According to NOAA, the best time to prepare for hurricanes is before hurricane season begins. "Understand your risk from hurricanes, and begin pre-season preparations now," NOAA said in an online report, noting that it's key to understand and interpret forecasts and alerts, and know what to do before, during, and after a storm.
"Avoid having to rush through potentially life-saving preparations by waiting until it’s too late," the agency also recommends. "Get your disaster supplies while the shelves are still stocked, and get that insurance checkup early, as flood insurance requires a 30-day waiting period."