When does the 2025 Hurricane Season start? Forecasters warn of 'above-normal' activity
The upcoming hurricane season is nearing and forecasters say it'll more than likely be a significant one.
There's a 60% chance that tropical storm activity will be above normal with just a 30% chance of a near-normal season, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said on May 22. The forecast comes after several devastating hurricanes battered the U.S. last year, including Helene, which killed 241 people across five states in September.
The agency forecasts between 13 to 19 total named tropical storms with around 6 to 10 of those developing into hurricanes and 3-5 becoming major ones.
Ahead of the 2025 outlook, NOAA's acting administrator Laura Grimm said last year's season forecast was "right on the money."
"As we witnessed last year with significant inland flooding from hurricanes Helene and Debby, the impacts of hurricanes can reach far beyond coastal communities," Laura Grimm said in a news release.
While the season doesn't start until next month, the NOAA forecasts "an area of low pressure" to form early next week several hundred miles south of Mexico's southern coast. There's a 70% chance the system will develop between May 26 to May 30. The system has the potential to become Alvin, the first named system in the Northern Hemisphere of the season.
Here's what to know about this year's hurricane season.
When does the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season start?
The Atlantic hurricane season officially begins on June 1 and will last through the end of November.
Active hurricane weather typically peaks between mid-August and mid-October.
Why the center is predicting an above average hurricane season?
The season is expected to be above average due to a "confluence of factors, including continued ENSO-neutral conditions, warmer than average ocean temperatures, forecasts for weak wind shear, and the potential for higher activity from the West African Monsoon, a primary starting point for Atlantic hurricanes," NOAA said in a media release.
"ENSO" is short for "El Niño - Southern Oscillation," the overall term for the El Niño / La Niña climate cycle that affect weather worldwide. "ENSO-Neutral" means neither El Niño nor La Niña conditions are present.
"All of these elements tend to favor tropical storm formation," NOAA said.
When does a tropical storm become a hurricane?
A tropical storm is a cyclone that forms over water with wind speeds of 39 mph or higher.
Tropical storms are considered hurricanes once wind speeds reach 74 mph or higher while major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5) reach with winds of 111 mph or higher.
Why hurricanes, tropical storms could form before June?
Though the six-month hurricane season officially begins June 1, storms have formed in May several times in recent years.
Forecasters from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration will release their forecast in late May.
What areas does the Atlantic hurricane season include?
The Atlantic hurricane season includes all storms that form in the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico, which was renamed this year to the "Gulf of America" by President Donald Trump.
What do other hurricane season 2025 forecasts say?
Other top forecasters are predicting an active season. Colorado State University's hurricane forecasting team, led by Phil Klotzbach, predicted 17 total named storms, of which 9 will be hurricanes, in its April forecast.
AccuWeather's forecast, which came out in March, calls for 13-18 named storms, of which 7-10 will be hurricanes.
The record for most actual named storms in a season is 30, set in 2020.
How to prepare for hurricane danger
The best time to prepare for a hurricane is before hurricane season begins, the National Hurricane Center said.
It is vital to understand your home's vulnerability to storm surge, flooding, and wind. Here is your checklist of things to do before hurricane seasons begins. Here are some Paste BN links to bookmark on how to prepare your home for a hurricane and how to prepare a go-bag in case you need to evacuate.
How many people died from Hurricane Helene?
With a U.S. death toll of at least 241, Helene was the continental United States’ deadliest single storm since Hurricane Katrina in 2005, when about 1,400 people died.
Other deadly storms in 2024 included Hurricanes Beryl and Milton, each of which killed over 40 people in the United States.