Storm tracker: Hurricane forecasters watch tropical waves and more
The National Hurricane Center does not expect tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic during the next seven days, but forecasters are watching some concerning weather patterns.
With the official start to the 2025 hurricane season just days away, forecasters at the National Hurricane Center are tracking two tropical waves in the Atlantic basin as of May 27.
One wave is in the central Atlantic and the other is in the Caribbean. Neither is expected to develop into a named storm, which is typical: While 100 or so tropical waves form in the Atlantic each year, only an average of 14 named storms develop each year, according to the hurricane center.
A tropical wave is a system of low pressure that moves westward across the tropics. Waves can lead to the formation of tropical cyclones, under the right conditions, according to the National Weather Service.
The majority of tropical cyclones develop out of tropical waves, which also are called easterly waves, according to NOAA.
The National Hurricane Center said other than the two tropical waves, there are no tropical disturbances in the Atlantic basin and no tropical cyclone activity is expected during the next seven days.
'We need to watch the Gulf'
Of potentially more concern comes from computer models, some of which show a potential disturbance in the Gulf of America, formerly known as Gulf of Mexico, in early June. "We need to watch the Gulf in 10 days, or so, as a weakness in the subtropical ridge finally allows a tropical disturbance to lift north," said meteorologist Ryan Maue of WeatherTrader.com on X on Tuesday. "The Gulf is now plenty warm for a tropical storm."
The first named storm of the 2025 season will be Andrea.
Another meteorologist, Andy Hazelton of the University of Miami, said on X Tuesday, "Most likely, it'll just be a strung out mess, but either way lots of tropical moisture will come north and hopefully help alleviate some of the still-ongoing drought in Florida."
How many named storms are in an average hurricane season?
- Named storms: 14
- Hurricanes: 7
- Major hurricanes: 3
NOAA predicting 13-19 named storms for 2025 hurricane season
NOAA is predicting a 60% chance of an above-normal season, a 30% chance of a near-normal season and a 10% chance for a below-normal season.
Forecasters predict:
- Named storms: 13-19
- Hurricanes: 6-10
- Major hurricanes: 3-5
A major hurricane is a Category 3 storm or higher, with maximum sustained winds of at least 111 mph.
When is hurricane season?
The Atlantic hurricane season starts June 1 and ends Nov. 30.
Contributing: C. A. Bridges and Cheryl McCloud, Paste BN NETWORK - Florida