Erick upgraded to an 'extremely dangerous' Category 4 hurricane: See path
Hurricane Erick is forecast to strike the southern coast of Mexico after being upgraded to an "extremely dangerous" Category 4 early Thursday, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said.
After becoming a hurricane in the eastern Pacific Ocean early on June 18, the storm continued to organize throughout the day, forming a clear eye on satellite images, the National Hurricane Center said. By 12 a.m. CST, Erick's winds were an estimated 145 mph and located about 70 miles southwest of Puerto Angel, Mexico, moving northwestward at about 9 mph.
The second hurricane of the Pacific season is expected to arrive along the coast east of Acapulco with destructive winds, life-threatening storm surge, and flash flooding.
The center's update said the intensity forecast was "a little uncertain" because the Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft had to abort its flight early because of a computer problem.
Though the hurricane's intensity might fluctuate in the hours before landfall, it's possible it could strengthen further, the center stated. But the system is expected to rapidly fall apart after landfall and dissipate into a tropical depression over southern Mexico by Thursday evening. Erick is not expected to pose any problems for the U.S.
The storm's forecast track has shifted eastward, and weather conditions in the region already have deteriorated, the hurricane center said. A hurricane warning is in effect for Acapulco to Puerto Angel, while a hurricane watch is in effect for west of Acapulco to Tecpan de Galeana. A tropical storm warning is in effect for east of Puerto Angel to Salina Cruz, and west of Acapulco to Tecpan de Galena.
Erick is forecast to produce rainfall totals of 8 to 12 inches, with maximum totals of 16 inches, across the Mexican states of Oaxaca and Guerrero. The rainfall will lead to "life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain," the hurricane center said Wednesday. Additionally, rainfall totals between 3 to 8 inches are expected across the Mexican states of Chiapas, Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco.
The hurricane center said swells generated by Erick are expected to begin affecting the southern coast of Mexico later Wednesday, and are "likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions."
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Hurricane Erick path tracker
This forecast track shows the most likely path of the center of the storm. It does not illustrate the full width of the storm or its impacts, and the center of the storm is likely to travel outside the cone up to 33% of the time.
Hurricane Erick spaghetti models
Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The hurricane center uses only the top four or five highest-performing models to help make its forecasts.
How do hurricanes form?
Hurricanes are born in the tropics, above warm water. Clusters of thunderstorms can develop over the ocean when water temperatures exceed 80 degrees Fahrenheit. If conditions are right, the clusters swirl into a storm known as a tropical wave or tropical depression.
A tropical depression becomes a named tropical storm once its sustained wind speeds reaches 39 miles per hour. When its winds reach 74 mph, the storm officially becomes a hurricane.
Prepare now for hurricanes
Delaying potentially life-saving preparations could mean waiting until it’s too late. "Get your disaster supplies while the shelves are still stocked, and get that insurance checkup early, as flood insurance requires a 30-day waiting period," NOAA recommends.
- Develop an evacuation plan: If you are at risk from hurricanes, you need an evacuation plan. Now is the time to begin planning where you would go and how you would get there.
- Assemble disaster supplies: Whether you’re evacuating or sheltering-in-place, you’re going to need supplies not just to get through the storm but for the potentially lengthy aftermath, NOAA said.
- Get an insurance checkup and document your possessions: Contact your insurance company or agent now and ask for an insurance check-up to make sure you have enough insurance to repair or even replace your home and/or belongings. Remember, home and renters insurance doesn’t cover flooding, so you’ll need a separate policy for it. Flood insurance is available through your company, agent, or the National Flood Insurance Program. Act now, as flood insurance requires a 30-day waiting period.
- Create a family communication plan: NOAA said to take the time now to write down your hurricane plan, and share it with your family. Determine family meeting places, and make sure to include an out-of-town location in case of evacuation.
- Strengthen your home: Now is the time to improve your home’s ability to withstand hurricane impacts. Trim trees; install storm shutters, accordion shutters, and/or impact glass; seal outside wall openings.
Contributing: Dinah Voyles Pulver, Paste BN
This story has been updated to add new information.
Gabe Hauari is a national trending news reporter at Paste BN. You can follow him on X @GabeHauari or email him at Gdhauari@gannett.com.