Will a hurricane impact your state in 2025? Odds get an update.
Top experts from Colorado State University released an updated forecast for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season.
Top experts from Colorado State University released an updated forecast for the Atlantic hurricane season on July 9, and there is a morsel of good news: "We have decreased our forecast slightly," said meteorologist Phil Klotzbach about the updated prediction.
Instead of nine hurricanes forming in the Atlantic basin in 2025, the new forecast calls for 8. An average season sees seven.
"The primary reason for the slight decrease in the outlook is both observed and predicted high levels of Caribbean shear," the forecast said. In this context, forecasters are referring to wind shear, upper-level winds that act to tear developing storms apart.
"High levels of Caribbean shear in June/July are typically associated with less active hurricane seasons," the forecast said.
But don't let your guard down: Overall, the team still says a total of 16 named tropical storms will form in 2025 (this includes the three that have already formed: Andrea, Barry and Chantal). Additionally, forecasters wrote, "we anticipate a slightly above-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline."
Hurricane risk by state
The forecast includes a state-by-state look at hurricane risk. Those calculations predict the chances of a storm passing within 50 miles of the state.
Per usual, the highest risk is in Florida, which faces a 90% chance of being impacted by a tropical storm and a 62% chance of being impacted by a hurricane.
Will your state be impacted by a hurricane? Here's what to know about the risk in 2025, according to the new outlook:
Will a hurricane impact Alabama in 2025?
In Alabama, there's a 64% storm chance and a 32% hurricane chance. There is also a 10% chance of a major hurricane tracking within 50 miles of Alabama, according to CSU experts.
Will a hurricane impact Connecticut in 2025?
There is a 25% storm chance and 9% hurricane chance in Connecticut.
Will a hurricane impact Delaware in 2025?
There is a 26% storm chance and 7% hurricane chance in Delaware.
Will a hurricane impact Florida in 2025?
In Florida, there is a 90% storm chance and a 62% hurricane chance. There is also a 33% chance of a major hurricane tracking within 50 miles of the state.
Will a hurricane impact Georgia in 2025?
There is a 69% storm chance and a 35% hurricane chance in Georgia.
Will a hurricane impact Louisiana in 2025?
In Louisiana, there is a 72% storm chance and a 43% hurricane chance. There is also a 17% chance of a major hurricane tracking within 50 miles of Louisiana.
Will a hurricane impact Maine in 2025?
In Maine, there is a 25% storm chance and 8% hurricane chance.
Will a hurricane impact Maryland in 2025?
In Maryland, there is a 35% storm chance and 13% hurricane chance.
Will a hurricane impact Massachusetts in 2025?
There is a 37% storm chance and a 17% hurricane chance in Massachusetts.
Will a hurricane impact Mississippi in 2025?
There is a 59% storm chance and a 32% hurricane chance in Mississippi.
Will a hurricane impact New Hampshire in 2025?
In New Hampshire, there is a 21% storm chance and 6% hurricane chance.
Will a hurricane impact New Jersey in 2025?
In New Jersey, there is a 26% storm chance and 8% hurricane chance.
Will a hurricane impact New York in 2025?
There is a 30% storm chance and an 11% hurricane chance in New York.
Will a hurricane impact North Carolina in 2025?
There is a 74% storm chance and a 43% hurricane chance in North Carolina.
Will a hurricane impact Rhode Island in 2025?
There is a 23% storm chance and 9% hurricane chance in Rhode Island.
Will a hurricane impact South Carolina in 2025?
In South Carolina, there is a 63% storm chance and a 33% hurricane chance.
Will a hurricane impact Texas in 2025?
In Texas, there is a 67% storm chance and 41% hurricane chance, as well as an 18% chance of a major hurricane tracking within 50 miles of the state.
Will a hurricane impact Virginia in 2025?
There is a 51% storm chance and a 23% hurricane chance in Virginia.
When is the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season?
Hurricane season officially began June 1. The six-month season lasts until Nov. 30.
Will a major hurricane make landfall in the US in 2025?
Colorado State researchers said there's a 48% chance of a major hurricane making landfall somewhere along the U.S. coastline. The average, based on records from 1880 to 2020, is 43%.
A major hurricane has wind speeds of at least 111 mph.
The chances for a landfall are greater along the Gulf Coast (31%) than they are along the East Coast (25%).