Final hurricane season forecast warns storms are coming soon
The Atlantic hurricane season 2025 is entering its peak months and weather conditions continue to favor an above-normal season, just as federal forecasters first predicted in May.
The Atlantic hurricane season 2025 is entering its peak months and weather conditions continue to favor an above-normal season, federal forecasters said on Aug. 7 in their final planned Atlantic hurricane season outlook for 2025.
NOAA said forecasters expect a range of 13 to 18 total named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher). Of those, five to nine are forecast to become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including two to five major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher).
This includes the four tropical storms (Andrea, Barry, Chantal and Dexter) that have already formed.
A typical year averages about 14 tropical storms, seven of which spin into hurricanes, based on weather records that date from 1991 to 2020.
The numbers released in the Aug. 7 forecast are a slight decrease from the original forecast in May, though not enough to change the overall message of the forecast.
'Combination of factors' led to forecast
Atlantic basin tropical storm activity is expected to be above normal due to a combination of factors, including warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Seas, and an active West African monsoon. (The monsoon's thunderstorm activity over West Africa promotes the formation of African easterly waves, which can turn into tropical storms and hurricanes.)
ENSO-neutral conditions are also expected to continue, meaning there is neither an El Niño nor La Niña to influence this season’s storm activity. ("ENSO" is short for "El Niño - Southern Oscillation," the overall term for the El Niño / La Niña climate cycle that affect weather worldwide. "ENSO-Neutral" means neither El Niño nor La Niña conditions are present.)
“Many of the factors we identified ahead of the season are still at play, and conditions are largely tracking along with our May predictions,” said Matt Rosencrans, lead hurricane season forecaster with NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Prediction, part of the National Weather Service.
What do other hurricane season 2025 forecasts say?
Other top forecasters are also predicting an active season. Colorado State University's hurricane forecasting team, led by Phil Klotzbach, predicted 16 total named storms, of which 8 will be hurricanes, in its most recent forecast released Aug. 6.
AccuWeather's forecast, which came out in March, calls for 13 to 18 named storms, of which 7 to 10 will be hurricanes.
The record for most actual named storms in a season is 30, set in 2020.
How to prepare for hurricane danger
The best time to prepare for a hurricane is before a storm threatens, NOAA said.
“As we enter the second half of the season, this updated hurricane outlook serves as a call to action to prepare now, in advance, rather than delay until a warning is issued," said acting NOAA Administrator Laura Grimm, in a statement.
It is vital to understand your home's vulnerability to storm surge, flooding, and wind. Here is your checklist of things to do before a storm threatens your area.
Here are some Paste BN links to bookmark on how to prepare your home for a hurricane and how to prepare a go-bag in case you need to evacuate.