Hurricane forecasters eye 'significant tropical threat' in the Atlantic: What to know

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Hurricane forecasters were eyeing two developing tropical systems in the Atlantic Ocean Aug. 10 – one of which could pose an eventual risk to the United States – while Tropical Storms Henriette and Ivo spin far from land in the Pacific Ocean.

In the central Atlantic, the National Hurricane Center said a tropical wave had a 20% chance of formation within the next seven days. "Development of this system should be slow to occur during the next couple of days due to surrounding dry air, but some gradual development is possible during the middle part of this week while the system moves northward over the central Atlantic," the hurricane center said.

Most computer models show this system heading north in the Atlantic, away from any land areas, as seen with the yellow x in the map below.

Watching for a tropical depression

Of more potential concern to the United States, the hurricane center was also watching a separate tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic Ocean, dubbed Invest 97L. Officials gave that an 80% chance of forming within the next seven days. (Looking for the location? It's the red x in the map above.)

"This is by far the healthiest looking tropical wave we've seen off Africa this summer," said Houston-based meteorologist Matt Lanza on Aug. 10 in a Substack post.

Meanwhile, the hurricane center warned that "environmental conditions appear conducive for further development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the middle to latter portion of this week while moving ... across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic."

"Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are possible today and Monday (Aug. 10 and 11) across the Cabo Verde Islands," the hurricane center said.

'First significant tropical threat of the season'

University of Miami meteorologist Andy Hazelton, writing on X on the morning of Aug. 10, said there was "still a lot of uncertainty in the long term track" of this system. Some computer models said it would take a quick recurve east of Bermuda, while others said it will take a trek into the Bahamas.

"Any development could bring impacts for a large swath from the Caribbean to the United States East Coast," AccuWeather warned, adding that coastal and travel interests in the Caribbean, as well as the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf coasts, are advised to monitor the situation closely, as it may pose the first significant tropical threat of the season.

Lanza agreed, nothing that "folks from Florida and the Bahamas up the East Coast into Atlantic Canada and Bermuda should still be monitoring this system."

The next names on the list for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season are Erin, Fernand and Gabrielle.

Models for Invest 97L

Special note about spaghetti models: Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The hurricane center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts. 

Henriette and Ivo spin in the Pacific

While the Atlantic continues to bubble with potential activity, the Pacific has already endured an active season with nine named storms so far. This includes Tropical Storms Henriette and Ivo, which both continued to spin in the Pacific Aug. 10.

Though Henriette is passing near Hawaii, little impact is expected from the storm on the island chain other than an uptick in humidity, the National Weather Service in Honolulu said.

Henriette is expected to continue moving northwest away from Hawaii over the next several days. It is not expected to reach hurricane strength.

Though expected to weaken to a remnant low by later Aug. 10, swells generated by Ivo will continue to affect the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula during the next day or so, the hurricane center said. "These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions."

When is the peak of hurricane season?

The peak of the season is Sept. 10, with the most activity happening between mid-August and mid-October, according to the hurricane center.

Prepare now for hurricanes

Delaying potentially life-saving preparations could mean waiting until it’s too late. "Get your disaster supplies while the shelves are still stocked, and get that insurance checkup early, as flood insurance requires a 30-day waiting period," the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration recommends.

• Develop an evacuation plan: If you are at risk from hurricanes, you need an evacuation plan. Now is the time to begin planning where you would go and how you would get there.
• Assemble disaster supplies: Whether you’re evacuating or sheltering-in-place, you’re going to need supplies not just to get through the storm but for the potentially lengthy aftermath, NOAA said.
• Get an insurance checkup and document your possessions: Contact your insurance company or agent now and ask for an insurance check-up to make sure you have enough insurance to repair or even replace your home and/or belongings. Remember, home and renters insurance doesn’t cover flooding, so you’ll need a separate policy for it. Flood insurance is available through your company, agent, or the National Flood Insurance Program. Act now, as flood insurance requires a 30-day waiting period.
• Create a family communication plan: NOAA said to take the time now to write down your hurricane plan, and share it with your family. Determine family meeting places, and make sure to include an out-of-town location in case of evacuation.
• Strengthen your home: Now is the time to improve your home’s ability to withstand hurricane impacts. Trim trees; install storm shutters, accordion shutters, and/or impact glass; seal outside wall openings.

Contributing: John Gallas and Cheryl McCloud, Paste BN Network