Britain braces for most uncertain election in decades

LONDON — Amelia Abplanalp doesn't know who to vote for in the United Kingdom's next general election and her indecision doesn't appear to be unique.

The 27-year-old who works in politics said she represents the problem many voters here face with fewer than 100 days to go before polls open May 7 in what analysts say is the most wide open race in generations.

"It's a real challenge to know what it is I'm voting for," Abplanalp said. "The Conservative Party (says it's) going to address spending, but at what sacrifice? Labor is traditionally a party that says 'we'll put money in and make sure people have enough food,' — how are they going to pay for that? The Green Party is offering fantastic policies, but how is it going to pay (for them)?"

For years, the Conservative and Labor Parties have dominated British politics. With the exception of the current coalition government — led by Prime Minister David Cameron — in power since 2010, the two main parties have effectively taken turns governing the nation since 1945. But experts say the political landscape is now vastly different, making outcomes more unpredictable.

"There's been a significant decline in support for the Conservatives and Labor since the 1950s, when it was more than 90%," said Jesse Norman, a Conservative Party Member of Parliament. "This has gone down to 65% of the vote ... the rest of the vote has become very split up."

Recent polling from YouGov — a U.K.-based market research firm — shows the Conservatives and Labor tied at 32% support, UK Independence Party (UKIP) with 16%, the Green Party at 8% and Liberal Democrats with 6%. With no one party expected to secure an outright majority this spring, another coalition government appears likely.

David Runciman, a political scientist at the University of Cambridge, said there were signs of a breakdown in the Conservative-Labor stranglehold in 2010, but that in the intervening years it accelerated further.

"This is the most uncertain election in my lifetime," he said. "The British economy isn't in great shape but it's not in terrible shape either — we're not Greece. I don't think people are frightened (about the future) but there's a lot of anger and a lot of uncertainty."

In its 2015 State of the Nation report — dubbed "the year of uncertainty" — independent think tank British Future said today's Britain is considerably more liberal than in the past.

"(The) majority are anxious, rather than confident about both identity and opportunity in our society today,' it said. "It is the job of politicians to articulate different views, but to aggregate them too. This has become more difficult as our fragmented politics show."

The Conservative-Liberal Democrats partnership formed after the 2010 election was Britain's first coalition government since World War II.

Diana Godwin, who works at a market stall in south London, said her daughter — then a student — voted for the first time in the 2010 elections.

"She voted for (Liberal Democrat leader Nick) Clegg," the 53-year-old said. "She was very disappointed."

A British Election Study Internet Panel Survey showed student support for the socially liberal but economically conservative party dropped from 44% in 2010 to 13% in 2014 after it failed to deliver on a pledge to scrap college tuition fees.

Norman said he doesn't think the so-called two-party system is over, but that politics is being pushed into more of a "coalitional feeling," with different parties working together. "I think, as Mark Twain said about himself, 'reports of (the two-party) death are greatly exaggerated," he said.

Still, those parties that have benefited most from a more fractured electorate have been especially interested in sounding the death knell of the two-party system.

"People are looking for alternatives," said Gawain Towler, a spokesman for anti-European Union, anti-immigration UKIP. The party has made strong gains amid concerns about levels of immigration and won its first two parliamentary seats last year.

The Labor and Conservative parties "no longer represent the people they were created for," Towler said.

The typical Conservative voter has been seen as white, older and middle class, while in the past the view was that Labor voters were mostly working class. But things have moved around in recent decades.

YouGov President Peter Kellner said that in the 2010 general election, middle-class Labor voters outnumbered working-class Labor voters for the first time. Many people who once identified with the Conservative Party have moved over to UKIP.

"Fewer and fewer people want the business-as-usual politics offered by the traditional Westminster parties," said Green Party leader Natalie Bennett, whose party has seen a surge in membership in the last year.

Abplanalp, who will be voting come election day, said she is generally in favor of coalition governments because it forces parties to compromise.

"Left-right politics is out of date — it doesn't reflect our society," she added. "People say 'are you left or right,' I can't answer that. It's much more nuanced than that."