'Queen of Scots' may rule over England, reluctantly

LONDON — Next month, voters here may put a woman who wants to break up the United Kingdom partly in charge of the United Kingdom.

Nicola Sturgeon, 44, replaced Alex Salmond as leader of the Scottish National Party after it failed to win a referendum on Scotland's independence in September — a vote that could have ended over 300 years of political union with England.

Now, with less than 30 days before Britain holds its first general election since 2010, polls show the SNP is on track to increase the number of its members in the House of Commons from six to around 50, making it the third-largest party in Parliament.

Some of the increased interest is because of Sturgeon, who has performed well in debates and is popular on social media.

The working class SNP chief, with her fondness for brightly colored suits and matching heels, is enjoying positive approval ratings throughout England at a time when the leaders of the major parties are not, according to YouGov, a research firm.

A recent YouGov poll showed that 28% of viewers who watched her in a televised debate among all seven party leaders said she won, ranking her ahead of the U.K. Independence Party's Nigel Farage. The British media have taken to calling Sturgeon the "Queen of Scots."

Scottish seats represent just under 10% of the 650 up for grabs in the House of Commons, but they're important ones in this election because for the first time the SNP may hold the deciding card in terms of which party gets to occupy Downing Street.

With neither of the nation's two major parties — Conservative and Labor — expected to win an outright majority in the May 7 vote, one will almost certainly need to form a governing coalition with one or more of the five smaller parties.

The current government is a partnership between the Liberal Democrats and Prime Minister David Cameron's Conservatives. The Green Party, UKIP and Plaid Cymru — from Wales — are also performing above expectation going into May's vote, but the SNP has been surging ahead.

If enough votes end up in her party's favor, Sturgeon could be asked to be the minority party leader in a coalition, even though she is not actually running for a seat and has ruled out accepting any formal role in such a government.

There is added political irony in Sturgeon's nationwide popularity because voters in England can't actually vote for the SNP — it's not fielding any candidates outside Scotland.

"We have already made clear we do not see a formal coalition with (the Labor Party) as a likely possibility — and we have made crystal clear we will not support a Conservative (Party) government in any way," Sturgeon told Paste BN on Thursday.

Still, instead of a formal arrangement, the parties could chose to support each other on specific legislation.

"If they don't have any choice it might happen," said Anthony Staddon, a professor of politics at Westminster University in London. "I think both (Labor or Conservative) would be loathe to be seen routinely relying on the SNP."

There are also potentially insurmountable differences: The SNP has not abandoned its long-term mission of exiting the U.K. If Sturgeon keeps to that line after the election, Britain could find itself in a scenario where the second-most important political figure after the prime minister actually wants to dissolve the union.

"In terms of Scotland's future, that is in the hands of the people," Sturgeon said. "(They) will determine what the next steps in the nation's constitutional journey should be."