Rocky days ahead for Greek government no matter bailout outcome

ATHENS — Greece will find out soon whether an abrupt about-face on a bailout plan from Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras will allow the debt-ridden country to stay in the eurozone, but it will take longer to figure out whether Tsipras will be able to keep his job.

The 40-year-old prime minister stunned observers this week by putting together a proposal to international creditors that was extremely similar one more than 60% of voters rejected — at Tsipras’ urging — just days earlier.

The Greek parliament approved the $59 billion measure in the early hours of Saturday morning, but not before 17 members of the ruling Syriza party's coalition refused to vote for the plan.

Now the nation is waiting on the edge of its seat to learn the creditors' decision, which is expected Sunday. Analysts and many Greeks predicted rocky days ahead for the government — no matter what the verdict is from Brussels, where 19 eurozone finance officials were reviewing the plan.

“Tsipras’ Syriza coalition is made up of 18 small parties and some are very radical. They want Greece out of the eurozone, out of NATO, out of the European Union,” said Antonis Schwarz, founder of Vouliwatch, a pro-democracy and transparency NGO. “Tsipras made a moderate proposal and some of these parties oppose it. At the very least there will be a reshuffle of the government to replace some of the more radical elements.”

Panagiotis Vlachos, a policy consultant who worked in government prior to the rise of Tsipras’ Syriza party, said the prime minister remains the one figure able to leverage his popularity to “sell” the controversial bailout to the public.

“Tsipras will face a coup within his own party, but he remains the one credible face for all this,” Vlachos said. “This uncertainty is important. The proposal deepens the relationship between Greece and its creditors, and yet the creditors don’t know what kind of Greece government will be in charge of implementing these austerity measures over the next two or three years.”

Both Schwarz and Vlachos stopped short of predicting Tsipras would step down or be forced out, but a vocal minority in Greece said the prime minister’s days should be numbered.

“In this country, we are accustomed to our leaders saying one thing and doing another, but it usually takes longer than four days to completely change direction,” said Katerina Aivaliotis, 43, a hospital administrator, referring to the time between last Sunday’s referendum and the release of the bailout package Thursday. “How can we trust what he says next? How can the creditors believe what he tells them?”

Those who voted against more austerity measures called a rally for Sunday evening in Athens to express what Aivaliotis called “fury and outrage” at the latest developments.

Daniele Georgiou, 39, an unemployed construction worker, said he voted against the austerity measures but hoped that whatever happened the country would get back on its feet soon.

“I have worked a total of 10 days in the last seven months,” Georgiou said. “How can a country move forward when there’s no money to do anything? I am against more austerity and against taking orders from other countries. But I’m also against being unemployed. Maybe I’ll end up taking orders from a German company, but at least I’ll be working.”

That view is becoming more common as the economic crisis deepens in Greece. The World Bank now predicts Greece’s economy will shrink 3% this year, dramatically lower than previous forecasts of 0.5% growth. The Greek media is saying the country’s banking system could run out of cash as soon as this week, and there is so far no indication when the banks and stock exchange, shuttered since June 28, will re-open.

“Most people, including me, just want the pain to stop,” said Hali Kontos, 24, a university history student. “It is more difficult to stand on principle when there is not enough money for food.

“It is incredible we have come to this point, but we have become a country of very desperate people,” he said.

Schwarz, the NGO founder, says the Greek economy is often compared to a patient suffering a heart attack.

“You have different organs failing, and the doctors work just to make sure the patient stays alive,” he said. “The baking system is an organ we cannot lose. Resentment against Tsipras and the government is great, and the current situation is unbearable. But this is our last chance. Once it is stabilized, we will see what happens with this resentment."