'Brexit' could trigger second Scots independence vote
GLASGOW, Scotland — It's been 20 months since Scotland voted to remain part of the United Kingdom. Now, on June 23, the Scots face another major constitutional question: Should the U.K. remain part of the European Union?
But the question immediately raises another big one: Would a decision to leave the EU lead to a second referendum on independence?
Nicola Sturgeon, Scotland's first minister and the leader of the Scottish National Party, is a staunch supporter of independence as well as the EU. Polls show support for the 28-nation political bloc is stronger in Scotland than elsewhere in the U.K.
However, Sturgeon has said that if Scotland is removed from the EU "against its will" — if the U.K. as a whole opts to leave but a majority of Scots vote to stay — there will be a public outcry and a second referendum may be necessary.
It's not certain she would win it.
TNS, a market research firm, found last week that 44% of Scots would vote for independence and 56% to stay in the U.K. if a referendum were held in the wake of Brexit, a British exit from the EU. That's slightly lower than the failed independence vote in 2014.
Oil is a major source of revenue for Scotland and the case for independence has been dented by failing oil prices, confusion over what it would mean for border controls as well as what currency Scotland would use. (It now uses the British pound).
Meanwhile, British Prime Minister David Cameron has been successfully presenting the threat of a second Scottish independence referendum as a reason for the U.K. to stay in the EU.
Tom Harris, a former Labour Party member of Parliament who heads the Scottish campaign to leave the EU, says he is frustrated because of his failure to persuade any Scottish National Party parliamentarians to join his campaign. Just two members of the Scottish Parliament, both from the Conservative Party, turned up for a publicity event he organized recently at Holyrood, Scotland's Parliament.
The event highlighted that Scotland would have more control over fishing and agriculture, both important industries for its economy, if it left the EU. Lawmaking power now is split between the Scottish government, in Holyrood, Edinburgh, and Britain's government in Westminster, in London.
The Brexit debate has been shaped by the failed 2014 independence referendum. That vote, in which an extraordinary 85% of the electorate took part, reshaped Scottish politics. The Scottish National Party consolidated its position as the most powerful party at Scotland's devolved Parliament. Allegiance to the once-dominant Labour Party melted.
Yet critics claim they can't make the case for staying in the EU convincingly when the arguments are so similar to those for Scotland to stay in the U.K. During a visit to Stow, a town on the England-Scotland border, George Osborne, Britain's finance minister, said Brexit would cause unemployment in Scotland to rise by 43,000.
Sturgeon — who rejected similar claims as "scaremongering" in the independence referendum — has refused to endorse Osborne's claims.
Opponents also claim Sturgeon has looked uncomfortable during TV debates arguing in favor of countries “pooling sovereignty” and working together.
While a majority of Scotland's four million voters are expected to back staying in the EU, surveys show that Scots' backing for the EU is "soft," based more on a fear of the unknown than any strong feeling of European identity or affection for the international organization.
John Curtice, a professor of politics at Strathclyde University who is also an expert on polling expert, said the U.K.'s fate could hinge on which of the two issues — immigration or fears over the post-Brexit economy — prove most influential.
Follow Mangus Gardham on Twitter: @GardhamHT