Scottish leader prepares for pre-Brexit independence vote

GLASGOW, Scotland — Scottish leader Nicola Sturgeon is to unveil a blueprint for a second independence referendum within days after warning the United Kingdom's Prime Minister Theresa May she is not bluffing about a pre-Brexit vote to break up the U.K.

Sturgeon announced a draft referendum bill would be published next week and indicated she was ready to hold the vote before the U.K. formally withdraws from the European Union in early 2019 unless central government delivers sweeping new powers for Scotland.

Her announcement, on the opening day of the Scottish National Party (SNP) conference in Glasgow, prompted bookmakers to slash the odds on a second referendum, and coincided with her predecessor Alex Salmond urging her to hold another vote even if there was no majority for "yes" in the polls.

Academics predicted that chaos caused by the U.K. formally serving notice to quit the EU next spring could prove a potent "recruiting sergeant" for independence.

The SNP leader's remarks drew immediate criticism from the main opposition parties in the Scottish Parliament at Holyrood, with both the Conservative Party and Labour accusing her of putting her dream of independence above issues such as health and education.

Sturgeon called on May to "prove" Scotland was an equal partner within the U.K. as she railed against hardliners in the Conservative Party who appear to be succeeding in their push for a "hard" Brexit that would mean leaving the single market.

She said demands would be published within weeks for new powers for Holyrood which will include immigration and the ability to strike international deals. She also called for areas of policy currently under the remit of Brussels, such as fishing and farming, to be transferred to Edinburgh.

Issuing a direct message to May, Sturgeon said: "Hear this — if you think for one single second that I'm not serious about doing what it takes to protect Scotland's interests, then think again.

"If you can't — or won't — allow us to protect out interests within the U.K., then Scotland will have the right to decide, afresh, if it wants to take a different path.

"I am determined that Scotland will have the ability to reconsider the question of independence — and to do so before the UK leaves the EU — if that is necessary to protect our country's interests. So I can confirm today that the Independence Referendum Bill will be published for consultation next week."

The announcement drew a rapturous standing ovation from delegates, who were warned that in the case of a second referendum they would have to "engage the arguments with a fresh eye and an open mind."

But Sturgeon added: "If the choice we face is an inward looking, insular, Brexit Britain, governed by a right wing Tory (Conservative) party, obsessed with borders and blue passports at the expense of economic strength and stability.

"Or a progressive, outward looking, internationalist Scotland, able to chart our own course and build our own security and prosperity, then know this — that is a case we will win."

The comments came with the question of a second independence referendum set to dominate the three-day gathering.

A poll for The Herald, published Thursday, indicated that even a "hard Brexit" which Sturgeon has campaigned against would leave the country divided down the middle over whether a second referendum should be held. A new tracker poll by BMG  Research for The Herald newspaper found 47% of Scots would vote to remain in the U.K. if there was a second referendum tomorrow, with 39% saying they would back independence, and 12% undecided.

Stripping out don't knows, support for a "yes" vote was 45%, with "no" on 55%, the same result as the 2014 referendum.

But Salmond, the former SNP leader said: "Will Nicola Sturgeon push the button on a referendum if support for independence is, say, 50:50 or at that level? Well, I hit the button for a referendum when support was 27%. Why would she be reluctant on a much larger level than that?"

A consultation over the draft referendum bill will now be held, although Sturgeon will be under no obligation to introduce it to Holyrood. It remains to be seen whether the U.K. government would grant to power to hold a legally-binding vote, with power over the constitution reserved.

While the SNP does not hold a Holyrood majority, there are more pro-independence than pro-union MSPs in the Scottish Parliament taking into account the six Greens. The Green co-convenor Patrick Harvie has already said his party would back a second referendum if it comes to a vote.

Chris Hanretty, a politics academic at the University of East Anglia, said a chaotic Brexit may prove "the best recruiting sergeant the SNP could imagine." He added: "Scots voted against independence because it involved more risk than continued membership of the United Kingdom. Now that we are leaving the EU, union no longer seems like such a safe bet."

Conservative, Labour and Liberal Democrat Scottish lawmakers would vote against another referendum, but would find themselves outnumbered.

Scottish Conservative and Unionist party leader Ruth Davidson said Sturgeon had "made it clear she wants to take Scotland back to yet more uncertainty, more division and more constitutional upheaval" and accused her of failing to respect the 2014 result when two million people rejected independence.

Kezia Dugdale, the Scottish Labour leader, accused Ms Sturgeon of putting independence over education, health or tackling poverty.

She said: "Nicola Sturgeon’s top priority is to divide our nation once again. But our country is already divided following the Tories’ reckless Brexit gamble and we should not be seeking further divisions."

The UK Government has previously rejected the suggestion Scotland could be handed a bespoke Brexit deal, with May telling the Conservative Party conference earlier this month the nation would "leave the European Union as one United Kingdom.”

Downing Street said the independence question had been “addressed in 2014”.

Referring to Sturgeon’s demand for trade and immigration powers, a spokeswoman said it was not a question of "dismissing them outright" but it raised fundamental questions which would need to be "looked at carefully" given there was a clear devolution settlement.