Britain's minority Labour Party faces historic challenge in key elections

LONDON — Britain’s opposition Labour Party was fighting Thursday to hold two of its traditional seats in the heartland, as voters decided whether to abandon the party for the first time in more than a half-century.

The pro-Brexit U.K. Independence Party (UKIP) and ruling Conservative Party threatened to gain more ground in Stoke-on-Trent and Copeland in northern England.

The elections were called because Stoke's Labour member of Parliament since 2010 resigned to become director of the Victoria and Albert Museum in London, and Copeland's Labour MP for 12 years quit to head community relations at a nuclear decommissioning site.

Bookmakers favor the Labour Party to retain the seat in Stoke, famed for its pottery, after the UKIP candidate became embroiled in a recent controversy over a false statement about being on a charity board. UKIP eyed the seat because 69% of Stoke's voters backed the June referendum for the United Kingdom to exit from the European Union.

In Copeland, known for is beautiful countryside, the Conservative Party was favored. The area is near a nuclear submarine construction site, and Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn has been an outspoken opponent of such nuclear programs.

The outcome, however, could be decided by nature rather than politics. Storm Doris brought gale-force winds, snow and rain Thursday, threatening voter turnout.

Online betting exchange Betfair predicted a bleak future for Corbyn, putting the odds of him leaving his leadership post before the next general election in 2020 as 2/5. It said the Conservatives — or Tories — were trading with a 68% chance of being elected in Copeland.

“Corbyn looks to have blown any chance of beating the Tories in Copeland by failing to convince the constituency of his support for the nuclear industry, a huge employer in the area,” said Betfair spokeswoman Naomi Totten.

“And while the outlook is much better for Labour in Stoke, voter turnout is among the lowest in the country. The arrival of Storm Doris to U.K. shores this morning could rock their chances, throwing more doubt on Corbyn’s future," she said.

Matthew Goodwin, a politics professor at the University of Kent, told Paste BN: "Under normal circumstances we would expect to see the main opposition party score gains at parliamentary by-elections, increasing their support and mounting a serious challenge to the incumbent government. However, under Jeremy Corbyn, the Labour Party has been losing support and struggling to remain relevant in the national debate.

"These by-elections will provide us with more evidence of a Labour Party that is struggling to mobilize the kind of support that we would normally expect for a party that in theory is waiting to take national power.”

Election results are expected by early Friday local time.