Turning point in Ukraine war? As Russia admits defeat in Kharkiv, Ukraine regains land, confidence
The morale of Russian troops, a continual issue since the early days of the war when its forces bogged down near Kyiv, continues to plummet.
A stunningly successful Ukrainian military counteroffensive has reclaimed thousands of miles of occupied territory in just two weeks while energizing the Ukrainian population, fomenting dissent in Russia and sending some of Moscow's worn-down forces scrambling in retreat.
Has the brutal war reached a turning point?
Most experts are expressing cautious optimism. John Kirby, the National Security Council's coordinator for strategic communications at the White House, at a briefing this week described the war as a "dynamic situation" and stressed that it was unpredictable.
“What you’re seeing is certainly a shift in momentum for the Ukrainian armed forces, particularly in the north," Kirby said.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, his military's most vocal cheerleader, acknowledges the war is far from over. Much of Ukraine's success has been in the northeast, and many Russian military pundits have actually admitted defeat in the Kharkiv region. Yet this week Russian missiles smashed a large part of the city's energy infrastructure.
Zelenskyy called the attacks a "sign of the desperation of those who invented this war" but are unable to overcome Ukraine's dogged military efforts.
"These days, the Russian army is ... showing its back," Zelenskyy said in a speech. "And, in the end, it is a good choice for them to run away. There is and will be no place for the occupiers in Ukraine."
The success of the Ukrainian counterattack, sudden as it seems, had been months in the making, said Colin Smith, an expert on the Russian military at the Rand Corp., a nonpartisan think tank. Smith and Pentagon officials trace the rapid gains to Ukraine's ability to exploit Russian weakness in logistics, troop morale and Ukraine's home-field advantage.
Still, Russia has maintained advantages in numbers of troops and weaponry over Ukraine since launching the invasion Feb. 24. Moreover, Russian forces in the mineral-rich Donbas region in eastern Ukraine – whose seizure has been a stated war goal of President Vladimir Putin – have had months to fortify their defenses and have safer lines of supply to their Russian homeland just across the border.
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Ominous wildcard: Russia's arsenal of tactical nuclear weapons
Russia has tactical nuclear weapons, and its military doctrine endorses their use on the battlefield. Beyond the moral implications of detonating a weapon of mass destruction in his war of choice, Putin would have to take into account killing his own troops, poisoning the territory he has vowed to take and the risk of radiation drifting into Russia.
"We've gone months without having to talk about tactical nuclear weapons, which is a good thing," Smith said. "Now the question is, do they feel backed into a corner?"
For now, Ukraine has seized the initiative through a canny combination of intelligence, tactics and Western-supplied precision weapons, according to Smith and Pentagon officials.
From the war's outset, Ukrainian military leaders have relied on grassroots intelligence gathering combined with satellite imagery to target Russian forces. Ukrainian citizens behind enemy lines with cellphones have helped locate Russian troops and armored vehicles for attack, Smith said. Western allies have supplied intelligence on Russian military strength, and Ukrainians have relied increasingly on drones to spy and attack.
Russia has relied since World War II on railroads to transport and supply its troops, Smith said. One main north-south railway led from Russia to the key city of Izium in eastern Ukraine.
"That's how Russia gets from A to B," Smith said. "If you look at all of their successes over the last six months, just follow the rail lines. What Ukraine did was essentially cut off their rail in the territories they retook. Ukraine did a fantastic push. Once they severed that and cut off the resupplies, then it did become a rout."
The counterattack has exposed Russia's military structure. Unlike U.S. and Western militaries, junior and noncommissioned Russian officers lack authority to respond to rapid changes on the battlefield. Destroying command posts has left troops on the front line rudderless, Smith said.
Russian commanders, concerned about a Ukrainian offensive in the south near Kherson, had shifted forces there. When Ukrainian forces attacked in the north, near Kharkiv, the thin Russian lines collapsed. Unable to resupply forces by rail in Izium, the Russians abandoned that key city as well.
What happens next?
"It’s hard to tell," President Joe Biden said Tuesday. "It’s clear the Ukrainians have made significant progress, but I think it’s going to be a long haul."
A senior Pentagon official labeled Urkaine's gains extraordinarily encouraging. But, the official warned, Russia is still capable and willing to attack military and civilian targets in Ukraine. Hard days are ahead, said the official, who was not authorized to speak publicly and shared the information on condition of anonymity.
In the south, Ukraine can afford to wait, Smith said. Russian troops occupying the port city of Kherson are increasingly isolated by the destruction of bridges on key river crossings.
“They can just keep targeting logistics, they can keep targeting command posts, they can just keep rattling the Russians," Smith said. "If I were a Ukrainian general, I would not want to attack into the teeth of a defense. Especially in a position where they can wait them out, starve them out, get them to deplete their munitions. Then see what you want to do.”
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Dale Buckner, a retired U.S. Army colonel and CEO of the international security firm Global Guardian, has helped thousands of Ukrainians flee the country. He called Ukraine's successes the "first real validation" of Ukraine's ability to counterattack – with limited success.
"It does change the path of the conflict moving forward," Buckner told Paste BN. "The Russians now have an expanding challenge of defending the terrain they have taken."
He said the Ukrainians have the ability to slow down or delay the Russian advance near Kherson but will have limited success in taking back wide swaths of territory throughout the winter. That suggests a long and difficult fight ahead, with limited success cutting off Russian supply lines and disrupting Russian command and control while taking back poorly defended Russian territory, Buckner said.
"Ultimately, we do not believe the Ukrainians will be able to take entire sections of the Russian-occupied territory by spring of 2023 but will have success with smaller tactical objectives," Buckner said.
Calls for Russia's unconditional surrender
Lithuania, like Ukraine a former Soviet republic nervously in the shadow of its large and powerful neighbor, is among Ukraine's most steadfast believers. Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis proclaimed Putin's "genocidal plan to wipe Ukraine off the map" a failure and called for Putin's unconditional surrender.
"No more Westsplaining. No more dithering. No more negotiations with terrorists," Ladsbergis tweeted. "Those who doubted Ukraine’s strength should be apologizing. Ukraine defended us all, even when some didn’t believe they could succeed."
Undeterred, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov expressed confidence this week that Russia will emerge victorious.
“The special military operation is underway and will continue until the goals that have been set are achieved,” Peskov said.
RUSSIANS' CONCESSION: Russians admit defeat in Kharkiv; Zelenskyy visits Izium after troops flee shattered city
Russian forces made swift gains in the weeks after its invasion began, capturing cities and establishing military strongholds. But a run toward the capital Kyiv faltered, the gains slowed, and Russia relied on relentless missile strikes on cities and towns to carve out small gains.
Six months into the war, the two sides found themselves near a stalemate. And as weaponry from the West rolled in, Ukraine began to shed its severe underdog status. The High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems supplied by the U.S. have been used to destroy Russian command posts, ammunition depots and logistics hubs more than 40 miles behind the front line.
In a first, Russia admits defeat amid calls for change in strategy
In Russia, some military experts are publicly admitting the Kremlin's defeat in the northeastern Kharkiv region as Ukraine forces drive occupying troops out of about 300 cities and towns.
"The Kremlin acknowledged its defeat in Kharkiv Oblast, the first time Moscow has openly recognized a defeat," the Institute for the Study of War said in its assessment of the war that began with Russia's invasion Feb. 24.
The assessment says the admission in Kharkiv is likely part of an effort to deflect criticism for such a devastating failure from Putin and place it on defense officials.
Jeffrey Levine is a former career foreign service officer who served multiple tours in eastern Europe and as U.S. ambassador to Estonia – also a former Soviet republic sharing a border with Russia. He says it's essential the West continue the flow of high-accuracy advanced weaponry while maintaining sanctions and adding to them at every opportunity.
"The military embarrassment Putin has suffered along with the continued disruptions faced by the Russian population all weaken Putin's narrative, increasing his vulnerability and threatening his legacy," Levine said. "His legacy is of critical importance to Putin. He has to be thinking of face-saving ways out."
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Meantime, the morale of Russian troops, a question since the early days of the war when its forces bogged down near Kyiv, lacking fuel, food and ammunition, continues to plummet, according to a senior Pentagon official who spoke on condition of anonymity to describe intelligence findings.
Now, Smith said, Russian troops who signed contracts to fight for about three months are being told to stay in Ukraine and fight.
“Russia is not honoring those at all,” Smith said. “The soldiers, like, ‘Hey, I didn’t sign up for this. I’m not a professional soldier.’”
The effect is something of makeshift conscription that further damages morale and limits the ability of even good officers to lead them, Smith said.
In Russia, calls for a change in strategy
Dissent and concern is seeping into coverage of the war in Russia. State Duma member Mikhail Sheremet urged "full mobilization," which would mean calling up all reserves and possibly adding a draft to strengthen the Russian military's numbers.
"Without full mobilization, without switching to a military footing, including economically, we will not achieve the proper results," Sheremet said. "Today, the society should be consolidated and purposeful as much as possible for victory."
The controversial escalation plan has been rejected by the Defense Ministry, in line with Putin's refusal to call the Ukraine conflict a war. His "special military operation" is designed to minimize the impact of the war on the lives of most Russians.
Ramzan Kadyrov, the Moscow-backed leader of the Russian region of Chechnya, and Boris Nadezhdin, a former parliament member, are among prominent Russians to publicly criticize the war strategy.
"Mistakes were made,” Kadyrov said in a Telegram post. He said he might be "forced to turn to the leadership of the Ministry of Defense, the leadership of the country, to explain to them the situation that is really happening on the ground."
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Nadezhdin told NTV that Putin aides who convinced him the military would be fast and effective got it wrong: “We’re now at the point where we have to understand that it’s absolutely impossible to defeat Ukraine using these resources and colonial war methods."
Kirby acknowledged that Putin is facing increased criticism at home and said his fate is “going to be up to the Russian people." The Russian military still has problems with command and control, logistics and unit cohesion but is still large and powerful – and Putin still has a lot of military power left at his disposal.
“They clearly still have a military capable of inflicting great damage.”
Contributing: Maureen Groppe