The Daily Money: Is the economy soaring or stumbling? Two gauges tell conflicting stories
Good morning! This is Daniel de Visé with your Daily Money.
It's been a slow week, with the possible exception of that whole Endless Shrimp kerfuffle at Red Lobster.
But today, Paul Davidson offers a possible explanation for why the U.S. economy, shrimp-based and otherwise, has appeared remarkably resilient, growing briskly despite high inflation and interest rates.
In short, maybe it isn’t so resilient after all.
This week, the Commerce Department revised up its estimate of economic growth in the third quarter to an annual rate of 5.2%. That’s the fastest expansion of the nation’s gross domestic product – the value of all goods and services produced in the U.S. − since fall 2021, when the country was still bursting with pent-up demand amid the pandemic.
But a far-lesser-known gauge of the economy tells a starkly different story.
Gross domestic income (GDI) rose at an annual rate of just 1.5% in the July-September period and has grown feebly over the past year even while GDP has advanced solidly. Over the past four quarters, GDP has increased 3% while GDI has fallen 0.16%, according to an analysis of Commerce data by Joseph LaVorgna, chief economist of SMBC Nikko Securities.
That’s the biggest disparity between the two measures in recent memory.
And what is gross domestic income? According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, it is a measure of the incomes earned and the costs incurred in the production of gross domestic product.
The debate over which economic measuring stick is better isn't just academic. The Federal Reserve may want to see the economy cool down before deciding that inflation is pulling back enough so that it doesn't have to raise interest rates again.
Insulin users beware: your Medicare drug plan may drop your coverage
With Medicare annual open enrollment about to close on Dec. 7, Medora Lee reports, Medicare experts are discovering that many insurance plans are dropping some insulin coverage in 2024.
In an informal survey of 22 Medicare plans, 10 are dropping at least one insulin from their coverage lists, according to Diane Omdahl, founder of 65 Inc., which provides Medicare enrollment guidance through fee-for-service, one-on-one consultations. Four plans are dropping four or more different insulins, she said.
If you’re banking on the $35 out-of-pocket insulin cap to continue saving money next year, you must check your plan to see if your insulin is still covered. Only if your drug plan covers your insulin will you receive the $35 cap, according to the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services.
“Plans have the option not to cover drugs, and that’s what’s happening,” Omdahl said.
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🍔 Today's Menu 🍔
It's a new day for mac 'n cheese fans.
The classic Kraft mac and cheese is going dairy-free for Americans. Kraft Heinz announced Wednesday that a new plant-based product will be hitting grocery store shelves in the United States for the first time.
NotMac&Cheese (yes, that's how it is spelled) will be the third product created by the joint venture between Kraft Heinz and TheNotCompany, a Chicago startup that makes plant-based milk, burgers and other products.
The venture, called the Kraft Heinz Not Company, has previously collaborated on NotCheese Slices and NotMayo.
Kraft Heinz began selling vegan mac in Australia in 2021, but this will be the first time it’s been sold in the U.S.
About The Daily Money
Each weekday, The Daily Money delivers the best consumer news from Paste BN. We break down financial news and provide the TLDR version: how decisions by the Federal Reserve, government and companies impact you.