Texas QB Arch Manning already dealing with Texas-sized Heisman hype

Welcome to SEC Unfiltered, the Paste BN NETWORK's newsletter on SEC sports. Look for this newsletter in your inbox Monday through Friday. Today, senior national college football writer Matt Hayes takes over:

We’ve officially hit peak nonsense of what could be in college football, and we’re a long way from the 2025 season. 

Vegas recently released betting lines for the 2025 Heisman Trophy race, and if ever there were a doubt that college football is riding in the passenger seat of the indestructible, year-round NFL tank, this underscored it.

America can’t get enough football. 

We’re eight months from the beginning of the 2025 season — eight months from Texas backup quarterback Arch Manning officially becoming the Longhorns’ starter. And already the hype is rolling. 

Manning is either No. 1 or No. 2 in the 2025 Heisman race at many Vegas books. 

It is here that I need to remind everyone that Manning started two games in 2024 at Texas, against lightweights Louisiana-Monroe and Mississippi State. He had five total touchdowns (one rushing) and two interceptions.

Sandwiched around those games as the backup to starter Quinn Ewers were a few interesting (and telling) moments. Manning had a big touchdown run in a wild environment at rival Texas A&M, and had a deer in the headlights moment in a home game emasculation at the hands of Georgia. 

Other than that? Bupkus.

Manning was the No. 1 overall recruit in the 2023 class, and he obviously has the name recognition (nephew of Peyton and Eli) to push betting lines. He’s also playing for one of the hottest programs in college football, with a coach (Steve Sarkisian) who is a proven developer of quarterbacks and the pass game.  

So while there’s the excitement of what could be with a clearly talented player leading a clearly talented team, everything changes when the game is in Manning's hands, play after play, week after week, in the SEC. When Texas no longer is an SEC novelty and suddenly is playing as the team to beat. When it’s third-and-long in the fourth quarter at Ohio State, at Florida, at Georgia. When Texas absolutely needs a play, or the game slips away. 

This doesn’t mean Manning won’t be a legit factor in the 2025 Heisman race or won’t have a big season as the new Texas starter. It means that just because it looked good against two lightweights in 2024, it might not translate to games that matter in 2025. 

Because when you can’t hear yourself think in the second half at Sanford Stadium and The Swamp, it doesn’t matter if Peyton and Eli are your uncles. Or that they never won the Heisman Trophy, despite celebrated college careers.

What matters is if you can make a play in a big game when it's needed most. And right now, we have no idea. 

Nor does Vegas.

Matt Hayes is the senior national college football writer at USA Today Sports Network. Follow him on X at @MattHayesCFB.