For the Record: Iowa, you get to go first
After months of hearing from candidates and pundits, tonight we'll get a chance to hear from the people. Only the Iowa people, but people nonetheless. They'll get to vote, but in weird, inconsistent fashion. And they may turn out in record numbers, but only if the blizzard holds off. It's the final For the Record before actual voting begins, and yes, we're confidently predicting that one of the remaining 14 major-party candidates will be in the White House next year. Sorry you had to hear it from us, but someone had to come right out and say it.
Part one of lengthy job interview nearly over
After months of waiting in the lobby, this 14-person group job interview is about to get underway. Beginning at 7 p.m CST, Iowa caucus-goers will begin to cast their ballots ... well, "cast ballots" is a bit of a euphemism, because it might be secret-ballot voting or it might be raising hands, if you're caucusing with the Republicans. If you're with the Democrats, you'll have to physically move around the room throughout the evening to switch your allegiance from one candidate to another (this is why Democratic campaigns traditionally put such high value on recruiting the most sedentary-looking caucus-goers). In some towns, this process might be conducted in a town hall or school gymnasium; in other places, it could be in someone's living room. This could go on for hours; if the race is close, it might be weeks before we know who really won; oh, and the Democratic candidate with the most votes might not even win the most delegates. It's not quite democracy, but it's democracy-adjacent.
Closing arguments
Tonight's results are going to make or break several campaigns — some will see the writing on the wall and realize it's not their year; others won't see the writing on the wall, but campaign donors will. We might not have a clear picture on who the eventual party nominees will be, but we'll at least be able to put to rest the two-tier Republican debate structure, "Old Yeller"-style
So how did candidates spend their final days reaching out to Iowa voters?
- Bernie Sanders: Raging against the machine
- Hillary Clinton: Raging against the machine ... but, you know, pragmatically
- Martin O'Malley: Knocking on doors, politely introducing himself
- Donald Trump: Pointing out that he's running for president, not Sunday School teacher
- Ted Cruz: Elaborate introductions and spoon metaphors
- Ben Carson: Stealing Trump's supporters
- Jeb Bush: Three-day, 11-stop tour of northern Iowa, convincing voters that he can jump from 2% support to a number that starts with a 2
- Marco Rubio: Infomercial
Iowa weather: international news once every four years
You know that one neighbor of yours who's out jogging every evening, even that one time during the hailstorm? (It's like, come on, guy — your hammies aren't going to shrivel if you skip a day.) That's what traditional caucus-goers are like. Rain or shine, they're probably going to caucus no matter what. The newbies? Not so much. Tonight's cold but clear weather throughout Iowa is ideal for Donald Trump, Ted Cruz and Bernie Sanders, the candidates hoping for high turnout; establishment candidates would have been better off if tomorrow's blizzard was set to hit tonight before 7 p.m. We're not ones to tell people how to spend their money, and we're not ones to tell "people" how to spend their money, either. But come on, Jeb and Hillary — you decided to spend your millions on mailers and TV ads instead of collaborating on a weather machine?
More from the campaign trail
- The New York Times endorses Kasich for GOP nomination, which should help him out about as much as a Nancy Pelosi endorsement (Cincinnati Enquirer)
- Nevada could be high stakes for Sanders, Clinton (Reno Gazette-Journal)
- Pro-Sanders PAC raises $2.3 million for a guy who hates PACs, makes everything awkward (Paste BN OnPolitics)
Now it makes sense why O'Malley keeps saying, "hold strong"
Still confused about tonight's process? Check out this video to learn how to caucus/play Red Rover.