Skip to main content

Which of last season's playoff teams might miss postseason in 2024?


Every team enters training camp full of optimism.

However, at some point that optimism turns into concern. Expected contenders suffer injuries, defeats mount and a preseason of hope turns into a season of disappointment and despair.

Last season, there were six teams that made the playoffs that did not do so in 2022.

Playoff turnover is real, and there will be a a few teams that made the playoffs last season that will not this season.

Over the past four years, the average of new playoffs teams from the previous season has been nearly seven with a minimum of six new entries each time. The average year-over-year since 1990 is 5.85.

 Paste BN SportsNate Davis ranks the teams that made the playoffs last season − from least likely to most − based on how probable we think they are to miss the postseason this time around:

  1. Miami Dolphins — The Dolphins' seemingly disrespectful spot in this ranking is more a function of having to slot what is, by definition, some capable club here as well as an overall testament to the depth and quality that seem endemic to the AFC given its lineup of star quarterbacks. 
  2. Pittsburgh Steelers — The Steelers are tasked with navigating a gauntlet of a division where a winning record, even by the last-place finisher, hardly guarantees a playoff game.
  3. Dallas Cowboys — Perhaps, the uncertain futures faced by lame-duck head coach Mike McCarthy and quarterback Dak Prescott are unfairly skewing perception of the reigning NFC East titlists before they’ve even played a down.
  4. Houston Texans — It's wise to remember that a Week 18 win over a damaged Indianapolis Colts squad was the difference between winning the division and being a quaint, and likely much less-vaunted, 9-8 team.
  5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers — The NFC South again presents as an underwhelming crapshoot and likely to produce just one, likely fourth-seeded, playoff qualifier.

➤ See which teams rank from No. 6 through 14

📷: NFL training camps 🏈

News, notes and tidbits from around the NFL

What did we learned from the Hall of Fame Game?

It doesn’t get much more underwhelming than the Pro Football Hall of Fame Game, the annual launch point of NFL preseason. While it is a reminder that football is (almost) back, it's a real soft launch for the 2024 season. This year's Hall of Fame Game between the Chicago Bears and Houston Texans didn't even make it a full 60 minutes, as it was called midway through the third quarter due to inclement weather.

Still, Paste BN Sports' Nate Davis watched it all and had some important takeaways from the first exhibition of the 2024 NFL season, including the league's new kickoff rule.

Previously on 'Hard Knocks': 'You jacked up, I'm jacked up'

The conspiracy theory launched on social media in the days that followed the New York Giants' selection of Malik Nabers – and his reaction to being picked that was never really shown – is now dead.

Yes, Giants fans: Nabers did indeed smile after NFL commissioner Roger Goodell announced his name as the No. 6 overall pick. 

NFL preseason Week 1 dates, times, TV info

Thursday

Friday

Saturday

Sunday

Who is ready to talk some football? ✋

Run a post route to our NFL Facebook Group 📲, The Ruling Off the Field 🏈, to engage in friendly debate and conversation with football fans 🏟. Not a member yet? Sign up today! ✍

If you enjoy reading 4th & Monday 📰, encourage your football fan friends to subscribe 📱. Follow the football fanatic writer of this newsletter on the socials @jimreineking 🧵.