Best (and worst) from NFL Week 16: Second-guessing 'expert' narratives

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NFL Week 16 is (almost) in the books. And, to quote the always-quotable Jim Mora, "You think you know. But you just don't know."

➤ Three and out (your Week 16 must-reads):

• 32 things we learned: Second-guessing 'expert' narratives
• Winners and losers: Surprise team has path to No. 1 seed
• Your updated playoff picture through Sunday's games

➤ Game of the day: Washington Commanders 36, Philadelphia Eagles 33 — The Jayden Daniels magic is back. Nearly two months after the improbable Hail Mary win against the Bears, the Commanders — behind their promising rookie quarterback — pulled off more late-game heroics against their division rival. This was a wild one. The Eagles led 21-7 after the first quarter, the Commanders had five turnovers, an Eagles player was ejected for giving the crowd the bird and Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts had to leave the game with a concussion.

➤ Dud of the day: Las Vegas Raiders 19, Jacksonville Jaguars 14 — Teams contending for top-five picks in the 2025 NFL draft produced the sort of game you'd expect from dueling disappointments.

➤ How about the ...!

• Atlanta Falcons: The Michael Penix Jr. Era has begun in the A.T.L. It probably helped that the Falcons were hosting the hapless Giants, losers of 10 straight and frontrunners for the No. 1 overall draft pick. With the Buccaneers' loss on Sunday night, the Falcons just to win out to earn the NFC South title.
• Baltimore Ravens: This team needs to be considered a legit Super Bowl contender after its impressive win over the Steelers on Saturday.
• Cincinnati Bengals: If this team somehow manages to get into the playoffs, nobody is going to want any part of the Joe Burrow-led Bengals.
• Dallas Cowboys: Entering "Sunday Night Football" already eliminated from playoff contention, the Cowboys pulled off a wild win over the Buccaneers, who really needed that one. The Cowboys now have won four of their last five games. The Bucs, meanwhile, have to keep winning and hope the Falcons lose.
• Las Vegas Raiders: No. 1 overall pick be damned. Tanking for top picks is something for silly, misguided fans to root for.

➤ What's up with the ...?

• Chicago Bears: Remember during the 2024 draft when Caleb Williams texted Tory Taylor about how he's not going to have to punt too much this season? It's all fun and games until you have to actually start playing pro football against other pro footballers. Fast forward eight months and the Bears are a punchline. The team has lost nine consecutive games after a 4-2 start. Williams, meanwhile, has been sacked a league-high 60 times and one has to wonder if this failure of a season in Chicago will hinder his further development. (And, in case you were curious, Taylor is tied for fourth for the most punts in the league this season.)
• Philadelphia Eagles: The Commanders committed five turnovers, yet the Eagles found a way to lose this game and fall a game behind Detroit and Minnesota in the race for home-field advantage in the NFC. This loss could have a profound impact on the Eagles' season moving forward, most notably with Jalen Hurts having to leave the game with a concussion.

➤ Alt uniform of the week: Atlanta Falcons — This throwback is one of many utilized in the league that the team should go back to permanently.

📸: Alternate and throwback uniforms of 2024 NFL season

📸: Best of NFL Week 16

NFL Week 16 key storylines

➤ 32 things we learned: By Week 16, you might think things would be settled with the top teams. Guess again. It's time to reconsider some common narratives.

➤ Winners and losers: The Vikings currently stand as the NFC's top wild-card seed, but Minnesota could make a major leap in the playoff picture in the next two weeks.

➤ NFL rookie phenom becomes 'heavy hitter': Jayden Daniels was already the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year front-runner, but the QB reached a new level with the Commanders' comeback Sunday, Chris Bumbaca writes.

➤ 'Sloppy' play has playoff team on alert: Penalties. Turnovers. Drops. Alignment confusion. All of it. The Eagles were done in by a rash of mistakes against the Commanders, Chris Bumbaca writes.

➤ Michael Penix Jr. had perfect setup in sudden ascension: Michael Penix Jr. got off to a strong start in his starting debut thanks to help across the board from his Falcons teammates, Jarrett Bell writes.

📸: Fans, mascots, cheerleaders and celebrities at NFL games

NFL Week 16 results

• Dallas Cowboys 26, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24: It took some chaotic plays, but the Cowboys won their fourth out of five games, while dealing the Buccaneers a blow to their playoff aspirations.
• Buffalo Bills 24, New England Patriots 21: The Bills rallied in the second half to avoid an upset scare in cold Orchard Park, New York, against one of the NFL's worst teams.
• Las Vegas Raiders 19, Jacksonville Jaguars 14: The Raiders snapped a 10-game losing streak, and might have damaged their chances at the No. 1 overall pick in the 2025 NFL draft in the process.
• Miami Dolphins 29, San Francisco 49ers 17: The Dolphins stayed mathematically alive in the AFC playoff race, while at the same time eliminating the defending NFC champion 49ers from postseason contention.
• Minnesota Vikings 27, Seattle Seahawks 24: The Vikings survived a wild one in the Pacific Northwest, and with the thrilling win remain in contention for home-field advantage in the NFC playoffs. Wins over the Packers next week and Lions in Week 18 will earn the Vikings the NFC's top playoff seed and a first-round bye.
• Atlanta Falcons 34, New York Giants 7: Michael Penix Jr. won in his first NFL start, sending the Giants to a franchise-record 10-game losing streak and into the driver's seat for the No. 1 pick in the 2025 NFL draft. At least it took until their 100th NFL season for the Giants to experience a 10-game skid.
• Carolina Panthers 36, Arizona Cardinals 30 (OT): This defeat, coupled with the Rams' win, eliminated the Cardinals from playoff contention.
• Detroit Lions 34, Chicago Bears 17: The Lions rebounded from last week's loss to secure a franchise record for most wins in a single season (13), topping the previous mark set in 1991 (12-4).
• Indianapolis Colts 38, Tennessee Titans 30: A week after inexplicably dropping the football right before scoring a touchdown, Jonathan Taylor went off, rushing for 218 yards and three touchdowns.
• Los Angeles Rams 19, New York Jets 9: The Rams overcame a slow start in chilly East Rutherford, New Jersey, to keep their place atop the NFC West.
• Washington Commanders 36, Philadelphia Eagles 33: Playing without Jalen Hurts for the majority of the game, the Eagles had their franchise-record 10-game losing streak come to an end after a late touchdown pass from Jayden Daniels.
• Cincinnati Bengals 24, Cleveland Browns 6: The Bengals remain "in the hunt" in the AFC playoff picture, and set up a big one next week against the Broncos at Paycor Stadium.
• Baltimore Ravens 34, Pittsburgh Steelers 17 (Saturday): Hoo boy, when the Ravens are on, they look like a bona fide Super Bowl contender. For the Steelers, however, this is a real inflection point after consecutive defeats and a Christmas Day game against the Chiefs coming up.
• Kansas City Chiefs 27, Houston Texans 19 (Saturday): Patrick Mahomes didn't look bothered by his high ankle sprain, keeping the Chiefs in line for the AFC's top playoff seed.
• Los Angeles Chargers 34, Denver Broncos 27 (Thursday): The NFL's 12 days of Christmas — a 12-day stretch with games on nine different days — kicked off on "Thursday Night Football." And, the NFL gifted fans with a wild game that featured something that hadn't happened in an NFL game since 1976, and a big Chargers come-from-behind win that pushed L.A. to the brink of a playoff berth.

📅: Complete 2024 NFL schedule

Coming up for Christmas week🎄🏈🎅

Monday: Week 16 concludes with a "Monday Night Football" matchup at legendary Lambeau Field between the Green Bay Packers and New Orleans Saints (8:15 p.m. ET on ABC/ESPN).

Tuesday: Paste BN Sports offers its power rankings for all 32 NFL teams after Week 16.

Wednesday: Merry Christmas, football fans 🏈🎄! The NFL's gift 🎁 to you is two games involving teams that will be in the playoffs. First the Pittsburgh Steelers host the Kansas City Chiefs (1 p.m. ET), followed by the Houston Texans hosting the Baltimore Ravens (4:30 p.m. ET). Both games will be on Netflix.

Thursday: Week 17 kicks off with the final "Thursday Night Football" game of the season, which will take place at Soldier Field between the Seattle Seahawks and Chicago Bears. Before the weekend's games, make sure to check out our expert picks for every Week 17 game.

Friday: Seriously, NFL. How is there not a game on this day? You could have had 10 different days over a 12-day stretch with games scheduled. However, there will be five college football bowl games to feed your holiday season football appetite. Take some time to scout potential future NFL draft picks.

Saturday: There might be no NFL games on Friday, but there are three on Saturday.

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