Skip to main content

NFL Week 18: Playoff spots, draft positioning on the line in final week

Jim Reineking   Paste BN

This is the Paste BN Sports NFL newsletter, 4th and Monday. If this newsletter isn't already getting conveniently delivered to your inbox, click here to subscribe.

Happy New Year, football fans! NFL Week 18 — the final week of the 2024 NFL regular season — is here. There's a lot on the line and plenty to talk about, so let's get to it.

➤ Game of the week: Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions — This is the biggest game in the 63-year-old history of this "Black and Blue Division" rivalry. It's also the first NFL regular-season game ever between teams with 13 or more wins, and the 28 combined victories are the most all-time entering a regular-season game. The winner gets the division and home-field advantage in the NFC playoffs. The loser settles for a wild-card spot and a possible first-round playoff trip to Tampa to face Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers.

➤ Sneaky-good game of the week: Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos — Carson Wentz could hold the playoff fate of three teams in his hands, as the journeyman quarterback will start in place of Patrick Mahomes. The Broncos need to win against the Chiefs to end the NFL's second-longest playoff drought (eight seasons; Jets are No. 1 at 14 seasons, in case you were curious). If the Broncos lose, that opens the door for the Dolphins or Bengals to sneak in (Dolphins would just need a win against the Jets; the Bengals have to beat the Steelers and then need the Dolphins to lose, too). While the Chiefs will be resting numerous starters, do they really want to help let Joe Burrow and the Bengals into the postseason (given Cincinnati can beat Pittsburgh on Saturday)?

➤ Just going to rank some games I'm interested in watching without giving any context:

  1. Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers
  2. Miami Dolphins at New York Jets
  3. Washington Commanders at Dallas Cowboys
  4. Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams
  5. Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers

📸: Fans, mascots, cheerleaders and celebrities at NFL games

NFL Week 18: Pigskin prognostications, betting tips, rankings

➤ Week 18 picks: This is where Paste BN Sports' panel of experts has provided fans with the great public service of making prognostications for every game this weekend, both straight up and against the spread.

➤ NFL Week 18 betting odds: Which teams are favored this week?

➤ Best bets for Week 18: Lorenzo Reyes is back with his favorite NFL bets for Week 18, including why he likes lines involving the Commanders, Dolphins and Packers this weekend.

➤ Power rankings: See how all 32 teams stack up with one week left to play in the regular season.

NFL news, notes and analysis

➤ Pro Bowl rosters announced. Who were snubs? The AFC and NFC Pro Bowl rosters were announced Thursday. And with that came the usual handwringing over who was not selected. Who were the worthy snubs this season? This is also your friendly reminder that there are just 30 shopping days until the Pro Bowl Games.

➤ Super Bowl 59 in New Orleans will be safe, NFL says: The NFL and the Saints are attempting to ease anxieties over potential worries of the safety and security of Super Bowl 59 in New Orleans following the New Year's terror attack.

➤ No rushing record for Saquon Barkley: Barkley won't get a chance to break the NFL single-season rushing record after all. The running back won't play in the Eagles' Week 18 game against the New York Giants.

➤ Big week for backup QBs: Consider Jimmy Garoppolo (Rams), Carson Wentz (Chiefs) and Bailey Zappe (Browns) among the backup quarterbacks who will get starts in Week 18.

➤ Is winning AFC North a bad idea? For the Steelers and Ravens, a wild-card spot might provide a better playoff path. Nate Davis explains why.

➤ Eli Manning and the fiery Hall of Fame debate: The two-time Super Bowl-winning quarterback won't be the only legendary player that will elicit strong opinions during the selection process for the class of 2025, Jarrett Bell writes.

➤ Why Jon Gruden should never be a head coach in the NFL again: This is a reminder. Call it a public service announcement for teams reportedly interested in Jon Gruden. This is a reminder of what Gruden said. A reminder of how ugly it was, Mike Freeman writes.

➤ Browns moving out of Cleveland? And into a domed stadium? Yes, the Browns could be playing in the 'burbs and under a roof (this seems sacrilege) if the team's relocation plans come to fruition.

➤ Highs and lows from NFL in 2024: Jayden Daniels, Sam Darnold are among bright spots of 2024 in the NFL, while Aaron Rodgers and Harrison Butker should consider darkness retreats, Jarrett Bell writes.

➤ 'Best two years of my life': It's safe to say Rodgers' run with the Jets has been turbulent. Despite that, the quarterback said that he will view his time with the organization fondly.

2025 NFL draft order

Here’s how the top 15 picks of the first round of the 2025 NFL draft stack up entering Week 18:

  1. New England Patriots: 3-13 record; .445 strength of schedule
  2. Tennessee Titans: 3-13; .512
  3. Cleveland Browns: 3-13, .531
  4. New York Giants: 3-13, .535
  5. Jacksonville Jaguars: 4-12, .477
  6. Carolina Panthers: 4-12, .496
  7. New York Jets: 4-12, .500
  8. Las Vegas Raiders: 4-12, .539
  9. Chicago Bears: 4-12, .547
  10. New Orleans Saints: 5-11, .504
  11. San Francisco 49ers: 6-10, .574
  12. Indianapolis Colts: 7-9, .473
  13. Dallas Cowboys: 7-9, .508
  14. Arizona Cardinals: 7-9, .547
  15. Miami Dolphins: 8-8, .426

The Patriots have the inside track for the No. 1 overall pick, which the team last owned in 1993 when it selected Drew Bledsoe. The team also had the No. 1 pick three other times in the modern draft era (1984, Irving Fryar; 1982, Kenneth Sims; 1971, Jim Plunkett). As you'll see below, all four teams with 3-13 records face playoff-bound teams in Week 18.

Week 18 NFL schedule

(All times Eastern)

Saturday

Sunday

📅: Complete 2024 NFL schedule and results

From the YouTube algorithm 🏈📺

This is where we reprise some NFL lore and recall a classic, memorable game from yesteryear.

Sunday night's clash between the Detroit Lions and Minnesota Vikings — in which the winner gets the NFC's top playoff seed and a first-round playoff bye — evokes memories of another winner-take-all encounter between division rivals during the season's final week.

On Jan. 2, 1994, the New York Giants hosted the Dallas Cowboys at the Meadowlands in a showdown between teams with matching 11-4 records that would decide the NFC East winner and which team would have home-field advantage in the playoffs.

It is a game often known in NFL lore as "the Emmitt Smith game."

The Cowboys' Hall of Fame running back, who would go on to be the NFL's all-time rushing yardage leader, basically willed his team to victory against the Giants. Smith suffered a separated shoulder during the first half. He continued to play, rushing for 168 yards, adding 61 yards receiving, and playing a vital role in getting his team into position for Eddie Murray's game-winning field goal in overtime. The Cowboys won, 16-13, and rode home-field advantage to a second straight Super Bowl victory, in Super Bowl 28, a game in which Smith earned MVP honors.

It was a bitter end to the 1993 season for the Giants, who defeated the Minnesota Vikings in the wild-card round, but were then soundly defeated by the San Francisco 49ers, 44-3, in the divisional playoffs. It was the final game for Giants icons Phil Simms and Lawrence Taylor, signaling an end of an era for a team that won Super Bowls during the 1986 and 1990 seasons.

📸: NFL teams wearing alternate or throwback uniforms

Get your daily dose of sports with the Morning Win!

For The Win's daily sports newsletter pairs the latest news from around the sports world with the smartest – yet somewhat irreverent – takes from FTW's staff.

Come celebrate your fandom with us Monday through Friday by signing up here.

If you enjoy reading 4th and Monday 📰, encourage your football fan friends to subscribe 📱. Follow the generally gumptious writer of this newsletter on the socials @jimreineking 🎊.

Facebook Twitter Email