American Democrats should fear the powerful populism revealed in U.K's Brexit election

PARIS — Flush with election victory and master of his island nation’s destiny at last, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson will this week begin formally taking the United Kingdom out of the European Union after three years of Brexit madness.

His Conservative Party’s resounding and historic landslide over the opposition Labour Party last week laid bare the deep frustrations of a British public not able to achieve Brexit three years after a bitter referendum decreed it. It also should send a wake up call to U.S. Democrats about the weakness of an extreme left-wing agenda at a time when President Trump enjoys a growing economy, a record stock market and continuing strong polls despite impeachment proceedings. 

Visiting London for a week before the election, on my way to an editor’s meeting here in strike-torn Paris, it was clear that the platform of Labour and its leader, Jeremy Corbyn, was hopelessly ill-advised. 

While the Johnson campaign stuck to message, just get Brexit done, Corbyn was vague about how he would retreat from Europe if elected. Instead he focused on historical Labour ambitions to raise taxes and roll back three decades of privatization and free markets by nationalizing major utilities and service providers. It was too much for a weary electorate that viewed the election though a single Brexit prism. 

Despite what many observers — and indeed almost half of Britain — consider to be a sheer act of economic insanity to pull out of the European Union, the public was ready to move on after an exhausting debate and let the Brexit chips fall.

That is another lesson the Democrats need to ponder. The attraction of focused-messaging, like Obama’s “Yes, we can,” can often top even the most well-considered platforms when it comes to a grueling election. Replacing our entire health care system may be desirable, but hard to distill down to a popular message vs. the Trump campaign’s simple “seven million jobs created” or “Make America great again.” Winning will require a candidate and campaign singularly designed to remove Trump. 

Making promises different than governing

As the British people are about to learn, however, campaign promises and governing are two different things. For despite the temporary euphoria and surge in financial markets following the Tory win last week, Johnson’s vow to achieve Brexit by the end of January will introduce a new wave of uncertainty that threatens to rip Britain apart from the inside. Scotland and Northern Ireland, which both voted to stay in the EU three years ago, are moving in different directions than the Conservatives. 

The Scottish Nationalist Party, which just four years ago came within a wee dram of winning a referendum on independence, won 48 seats in Parliament last week, up from 35, as the Scottish public rounded on Labour. First Minister Nicola Sturgeon declared this a mandate to seek a second independence referendum within a year. 

Scotland’s threat pales in comparison, though, to the turmoil that could beset Northern Ireland, for almost a century now a British province. The powerful Democratic Unionist Party there, whose 10 members of Parliament held former Prime Minister Theresa May’s Brexit plans hostage the last two years, lost its majority to Irish nationalist MPs for the first time last week. 

With Johnson’s Brexit deal dissing Northern Ireland by effectively leaving it tied to the Republic of Ireland in the South in terms of customs and trade with the EU, the potential for a referendum in the next decade on re-uniting the island grows stronger. Authorities on both sides of the Irish border worry such talk will re-ignite The Troubles, or the gangland-style civil war that ripped the province apart and killed more than 3,000 people in the 1970s and 1980s.

British political followers believe Johnson will follow the Conservative crowd that sees little need to fight to keep Northern Ireland in the union these days; that its eventual loss is worth the political risk to just get Brexit done.

U.K. needs trade deals

Most immediate among Johnson’s challenges, however, is securing a new trade deal with the EU after Brexit. At stake is about half of all British trade. How he executes Brexit will largely determine how disposed EU leaders are to cutting Johnson a favorable trade deal.

One of Johnson’s few bright spots seems to be his friendship with Trump, who has vowed a massive trade deal with the UK once Brexit is done. Having Trump as your ace in the hole is fraught with risk, however, as Johnson must understand. At best, a U.S. trade deal would be an expensive photo opportunity with Trump ahead of his U.S. election next November, and a few extra crumbs for Britain. 

But Johnson, whose political hero is Winston Churchill, is nothing if not a risk taker. A slippery character and ex-journalist who gets by on his rogue’s smile and popular unkempt appearance, Johnson famously switched allegiance three years ago in the Brexit referendum. He jumped from the “remain” campaign to the “leave” campaign because he saw a path to 10 Downing Street that way. This week he sits there with a five-year mandate from the largest Conservative win in modern history.

He can be forgiven if he thinks he can do anything from here. As Churchill once said, “history will be kind to me, for I intend to write it.” 

Johnson must now demonstrate he can be a great leader in a time of historic turmoil for his country. History will be watching. Unlike four years ago, when a wave of populism in the British referendum was ignored in the U.S. ahead of Donald Trump’s election five months later, Democrats should be watching too. 

David Callaway is vice president of the World Editors Forum and former editor in chief of Paste BN. Follow him on Twitter: @dcallaway