Who wins a Russian war against Ukraine? It could be China, Iran and North Korea.

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As NATO reports that Russia isn't really moving its troops away from the Ukrainian border, all eyes are focused on what Vladimir Putin will do next.

If Russian troops cross the border, there will be precious little attention for what's happening in the rest of the world. But we should pay attention because dictators in other countries might see the opportunity for mischief.

The United States will be occupied with trying to bring Russia to heel through sanctions and to reassure skittish Eastern European NATO allies by redeploying troops, ships and war planes.

Already, the Biden administration has moved 5,000 troops from the United States and put 8,500 others on alert. As the United States focuses on Europe and bulks up its forces there, we'll be diverted from focusing on the Middle East and Pacific. 

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What could happen while the United States stands up to Russia on behalf of democracies in Europe?

In recent months, China has shrugged off global criticism of its genocide against the Uyghurs and its decision to crush democracy and independent media in Hong Kong. 

China may take advantage

With Russia attacking in Europe, China could take the opportunity to tighten its grip on the South China Sea, an energy rich region that's claimed by Vietnam, the Philippines, Taiwan, Malaysia, Indonesia and Brunei. China could build more artificial islands in the sea, where a significant portion of the world's trade passes or more heavily militarize those already constructed. More provocatively, China could begin drilling for oil and gas on territory that international law grants to other nations.

Already the region has been the site of competing military displays by the United States and China. Further escalation could lead to war. 

China also could decide the time was ripe to do something about the independent democratic island of Taiwan. In recent years, China has been more and more aggressive about asserting military dominance over the breakaway republic, sending dozens of warplanes into the tiny nation's air defense zone while building military airfields and other facilities to support an invasion.

While some analysts don't think China is ready to invade Taiwan, U.S. military wargamers have suggested the possibility that China could take smaller islands held by Taiwan that are closer to the Chinese mainland as stepping stones or to test U.S. resolve in defending Taiwan. 

China will not be the only nation tempted to act if America is distracted by war in Ukraine.

Oil markets could be threatened

Iran could escalate its proxy war with Saudi Arabia over who controls the nation of Yemen by expanding efforts to supply armed drones and missiles to the Houthi ethnic group. Attacks on Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates could rattle oil markets, where prices are already at recent highs, and create another inflation threat to the world economy.

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That's if Iran doesn't take out its discontent over nuclear deal negotiations and threaten to directly disrupt oil markets by blocking the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of the world's oil supply flows.

North Korea could raise tensions by resuming its nuclear testing program or take provocative new steps to expand testing of its ballistic missile program. North Korea already has launched more missiles this year than all of last year. How much more will it do to intimidate South Korea and Japan if the United States is entangled in Europe?

The Ukraine crisis is important, and the United States can't help but respond. But the rest of the world will demand America's attention even if one European conflict that has been building for nearly a decade escalates.

David Mastio is a columnist for Paste BN. Follow him on Twitter @DavidMastio