Republicans must move past Trump for sake of the party's future – and the nation's

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Editor's note: This is the first in a series of columns exploring the future of the Republican Party and the conservative movement. 

Donald Trump, for more than six years, has dominated the Republican Party – dictating its positions on policy, rewarding his loyalists and punishing dissenters. Today, more than 20 months after the former president begrudgingly left the White House, the Grand Old Party remains largely under Trump's control.

Trump's leadership has produced mixed results for Republicans and conservatives. The Trump wave, particularly in swing states such as Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, undoubtedly pushed the red tide to new heights in 2016. 

In 2017, after Trump's upset victory over Hillary Clinton the previous November, Republicans held more power on the federal and state levels combined than at any point in nearly a century.   

Trump's political strength waned quickly, however. Republicans lost the House in 2018, and two years later, voters rejected Trump's bid for a second term and gave Democrats control of the Senate.

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Republicans favored to win House

In a month, after the midterm elections are complete, America’s political landscape could look dramatically different once again. Republicans are favored to gain control of the U.S. House of Representatives and might capture a Senate majority, rendering President Joe Biden the lamest of ducks with more than two years left in his term.

But what would Republicans want to do with all of that power? How would a Republican legislative agenda confront the nation’s biggest challenges? What is the future of conservatism in the United States? What does it even mean to be a conservative in 2022?

Are you a traditional conservative or a Trump Republican? Take our quiz

There's one other big, unanswered question, and it's the most important. Will – can – Republicans finally move past a disgraced former president who was twice impeached, who is the subject of multiple criminal investigations, who continues to lie about the 2020 election results, and who fomented a riot at the U.S. Capitol that threatened the tenets of our democracy?

How those questions are answered will shape America – not just red America, but the entire nation – in the years ahead.  

To help Americans find clarity on the future of the GOP and the conservative movement, three of my colleagues and I – each of us conservative – have in recent months interviewed Republican elected leaders, policy advisers and political analysts to identify where the party appears to be headed and what it hopes to accomplish.

Exploring the future of conservatism

In a series of columns this month, we'll explore whether traditional conservatives still have a home in the GOP, the rise of conservative media and why it matters, the dominance of Republicans at the state level and what it means for the nation, the growing strength of conservative women and how they are shaping politics and policy, and the prospects of a Trump alternative capturing the 2024 Republican presidential nomination.

To be clear, this series is not intended just for conservative audiences. In a country with only two major political parties, the health and direction of each party is of vital importance to all citizens, regardless of their ideology.

Read the series from Paste BN:

►Do traditional conservatives still have a home in the Republican Party?

►Is the rise of conservative media good for democracy? Dangers lie ahead.

►Do we live in two Americas? Red and blue states increasingly dividing over politics.

One statistic shows why that's true: In the eight decades of post-World War II American politics, Democrats will have held the White House for 40 years once Biden completes his first term, and Republicans will have held the White House for 40 years.

Voters have been remarkably consistent in rewarding both parties with chances to lead and to shape the nation's future.

From governors to judges

Even with Democrats now in control of the federal government's executive and legislative branches, the GOP remains dominant on the state level, filling significantly more governors' offices and state legislative seats than Democrats.

Trump, in his four years in office, also reshaped the federal courts, appointing more than 200 judges, including three to the conservative-dominated U.S. Supreme Court. Conservatives' old complaints about a liberal judiciary legislating from the bench are now well out of date.

More on the Future of Conservatism:

►The GOP is no longer the party of old, white men. Meet the conservative women on the rise.

►Back to the future: Republicans can find a way past Trump by recapturing Reagan's optimism

►Love him or hate him, Ron DeSantis is Republican Party's best shot at moving past Trump

Yet, the GOP is a party in turmoil – one where solid conservatives such as Rep. Liz Cheney of Wyoming can be driven from office by Republican primary voters for standing up for the Constitution and standing against Trump.

With Trump still at the top, the Republican Party's health is at severe risk in next month's elections and beyond. One example of why: Given the awful state of the economy and the positive history for the party out of power in midterm elections, Republicans should be in a strong position to win control of the Senate in November. 

Even so, Democrats could maintain their Senate majority in large part because Trump, in Republican primaries, supported inexperienced and flawed candidates like J.D. Vance in Ohio, Herschel Walker in Georgia and Dr. Mehmet Oz in Pennsylvania because they are loyal to him. Now, Oz and Walker are struggling in what should have been winnable races as the general election approaches. 

Republicans also face a substantial gap among registered voters. In the 31 states and territories that allow registered voters to designate their party affiliation, Democrats outnumber Republicans by more than 11 million citizens. Given Trump's low favorability rating and extreme persona, his presence as the party's leader makes it much harder for Republicans to attract new and independent voters.

Can conservative women catch up?: 2022 elections could be a new year of the woman in America

The politics of moral relativism: To destroy Trump, is it OK to break the rules? We'll pay a high price for doing so.

Candidates support Trump's 2020 election lies

Trump's continued grip on the Republican Party also is a risk to our democracy. The former president's delusional insistence that the 2020 election was somehow "stolen" from him has poisoned his followers' opinion of our democratic system and led to the rise of Republican candidates, especially on the state level, who threaten to undermine election laws that long had strong bipartisan support.

America needs to purge Donald Trump from our system. But for that to happen, Republicans must first purge Trump from the party's leadership.

The future of the Republican Party and the conservative movement – if they are to have a viable future – depends upon it.

The future of our nation depends upon it even more.

Tim Swarens is deputy opinion editor for Paste BN.