I was in the CIA. Here's how helping Myanmar can pay off for US against China. | Opinion
For both humanitarian reasons and our own national interest, now is the time for the United States to step up to help earthquake victims in Myanmar.
The 7.7 earthquake that has killed thousands in Myanmar and Thailand has exacerbated vulnerabilities and resulted in a complex humanitarian crisis and an urgent need for international aid to provide emergency relief services.
This natural disaster has also evoked debate on the value of international assistance, soft power, as a tool of foreign policy. The U.S.-led Marshall Plan in post-World War II Europe was an early example of soft power, and for decades this concept has been a credo of many Western liberal democracies as a tool more effective and humane ‒ and less costly than military force.
As a former CIA chief of station in Southeast Asia and Latin America, I've made middle-of-the-night phone calls to my host-country counterparts with a difficult ask. These hard requests can run the gamut from seeking sensitive information, say about terrorists transiting their country, to asking our counterparts to carry out covert tasks that, if exposed, could at a minimum embarrass them or in extreme cases put them, their country and citizens at great risk.
This is when past favors and public opinion ‒ carefully cultivated through soft power ‒ matters most. U.S. diplomats and intelligence officers working abroad often need to make hard asks. I know from personal experience that soft power advanced U.S. interests and paid off.
How can soft power advance American interests?
Indonesia is a great example of the effectiveness of soft power.
In 2003, only 15% of Indonesians held a favorable view of the United States, largely due to their opposition to the U.S. invasion of Iraq. A year later, after a catastrophic earthquake and tsunami hit, President George W. Bush pledged $350 million in aid and dispatched about 15,000 U.S. troops to support rescue and recovery operations in the region. By 2005, the U.S. favorability rating had more than doubled.
The Indonesian archipelago straddles critical shipping lanes in the South China Sea, and U.S.-Indonesia cooperation increased after the 2004 tsunami, particularly in the areas of maritime security, peacekeeping, disaster relief and counterterrorism.
In response to the latest regional earthquake, which had its epicenter on March 28 near Mandalay, Myanmar’s second-largest city, the United States has pledged $9 million in aid and sent a three-person team to do a needs assessment.
China, on the other hand, has been the lead donor of earthquake relief, pledging about $150 million and sending 600 personnel who included first responders, rescue teams, medical workers and earthquake experts as well as rescue dogs.
The U.S.-Myanmar relationship has focused almost exclusively on Myanmar’s human rights record and repression of its religious minorities and pro-democracy dissidents, including Nobel Peace Prize recipient Aung San Suu Kyi. Military governments have led it since 1962, except from 2011 to 2021, when a civilian government came to power.
Does Myanmar, formerly known as Burma, matter to the United States?
Ask, instead, why Myanmar is important to China
Situated on the strategic Bay of Bengal, Myanmar is buttressed by two powerful neighbors, India and China, and exports petroleum gas and rare earths minerals, primarily to China.
Geographically, the Bay of Bengal is important to China as it is the closest large body of water to China's southern land-locked region. Bangladesh also ships natural gas exports through the bay to the Asia Pacific.
The United States has held many joint military exercises in the Bay of Bengal with countries such as Australia, India and Japan. Russia and India also hold an annual joint naval exercise in the bay.
Myanmar is not a key national security partner of the United States, but its strategic location and access could prove valuable in the future. There is also value in sowing the seeds of goodwill that may one day buy a critical favor only Myanmar can do because of its unique situation, geography or partnerships.
It would be impossible for America to respond to every humanitarian crisis everywhere. Nor can we realistically extend to other nations the level of assistance that we provide to our own citizens.
However, for both humanitarian reasons – and our own national interest – now is the time for the United States to step up to assist the people of Myanmar in their time of greatest need.
Carol “Rollie” Flynn, a former senior executive at the CIA, is president of The Arkin Group, a New York City-based international intelligence and investigative company, and president emerita of the Foreign Policy Research Institute.