Arizona or Florida? Republicans have a stark choice to make about their future.

Sasha Stone, a freelance writer on film and politics, has written a haunting essay about our modern political culture.

As a California Democrat who ferociously opposed Trump’s 2016 election, she today sees an American left that is bankrupt and “much more dangerous ... than Trump could ever be.” 

If the Republicans elect someone from their strong bench of presidential contenders, they will smash the Democrats in 2024, she wrote. But persuading Trump voters to nominate someone else may be asking the impossible. 

Opinions in your inbox: Get exclusive access to our columnists and the best of our columns

Those Trump voters felt like exiles for years, she explained. Thanks to Trump, they “have a voice maybe for the first time. That isn’t something they’re likely to give up any time soon.” 

That’s a knowing observation.

But perhaps there is a solution in the bookends of the American Sunbelt that can help demonstrate to Trump voters where their continued loyalty to him leads. 

Arizona is the personification of Trump

Florida and Arizona are two states in which the Republican Party took on the personalities of their two leading presidential candidates for 2024 – Donald Trump and Ron DeSantis.

In 2023, those states are already yielding results that contrast the two men, their styles of leadership and the potential consequences that face Republicans should they elect one or the other.

In 2015, Arizona was the state that gave Trump his first big burst of energy on the electoral map, and he returned frequently when he needed to recharge his rockets. 

The Arizona Republican Party took on the style and character of Trump and was led by his acolyte Kelli Ward.

Trump plays victim: Donald Trump wants you to think he's constantly the victim. Maybe he's just a bad dude.

A GOP divided: Tired Trump fades at CPAC while DeSantis rises at Reagan Library

After Trump lost the 2020 election, the party and GOP leadership in the Arizona Senate signed up eagerly for Trump’s Stop the Steal campaign.

They ran a widely discredited “audit” of the Maricopa County election results and offered up alternate electors, including Ward, to power Trump’s effort to overturn his defeat to Joe Biden.

Florida Republican Party never played 'Stop the Steal'

In Florida, Ron DeSantis would not take that leap. Asked again and again to comment on Trump’s plot to overturn the election, DeSantis demurred.

The Florida governor is not a gladhander or big talker. If he expresses himself, he’s more inclined to do it with deeds than words. And so he has pushed out on many fronts against left-wing ideological drift in the public schools and universities. 

Last September, when the deadliest hurricane in nearly nine decades struck the state of Florida, DeSantis went into action with hands-on management. He set forth convoys of trucks to rebuild broken bridges and restore lost power. 

Another indictment?: To keep pace with Donald Trump, Ron DeSantis needs a looming indictment for the clout

Arizona MAGA candidates lost, big time

As the 2022 midterms neared, Republicans nationwide were eagerly anticipating big gains in the U.S. House and Senate.

In Arizona, the Trump-inspired Republican Party had helped propel to the general election MAGA candidates for governor, secretary of state, attorney general and the U.S. Senate.

Then-GOP Chairwoman Ward and her gubernatorial hopeful Kari Lake sneered at moderate Republicans. At one event, Lake said, “We don’t have any McCain Republicans here, do we? Well, get the the hell out!”

The future of the GOP: Republicans must move past Trump for sake of the party's future – and the nation's

Is GOP's 'big tent' shrinking?: Traditional conservatives find themselves without a home

Lake and Ward weren’t worried about uniting the party. It was a Republican cycle. In Arizona the GOP enjoyed a 160,000-voter registration advantage. 

Come Election Day, all of those MAGA candidates lost.

What happened in Arizona played out across the country.

The midterm election was a drubbing for Republicans, with Trump candidates losing marquee races for Senate and governor in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia and Arizona.

GOP gets its biggest victory in Florida

In Florida, however, the GOP overperformed.

DeSantis won reelection by 19 points, turning battleground Florida into a deep shade of red. Republicans strengthened their positions in the legislature and won a number of school board elections where the culture wars are aflame. 

What does 'woke' mean?: For conservatives, it's so much more than political correctness

What's in a word?: DeSantis and GOP fight 'woke' because hating a word is easier than hating people

As DeSantis emerged as the potential 2024 successor to Trump, liberal media and Democrats began warning that DeSantis is more dangerous than Trump. 

“Here liberals have a point when they suggest Mr. Trump’s ability to wreak havoc was limited by his ineptness,” Damon Linker wrote in The New York Times. “Based on what we’ve seen of Mr. DeSantis’s performance as governor of Florida, a DeSantis administration would likely display much greater discipline and competence than what the country endured under Mr. Trump.” 

DeSantis shows his skills, Trump botches his

If DeSantis was establishing a record of crisp management and electoral triumphs after his party lost the White House in 2020, Trump was losing his third election cycle in a row.

He badly botched the largest enterprise he managed following his presidential defeat – the legal and political movement to reverse the election results.

Election results: Fox News lied to you. Here are some ways to move forward.

I'm a Republican: But Tucker Carlson is wrong about the Jan. 6 riot – and so much more

Trump’s legal team was so slipshod that they were rebuked in some 60 courts, and even ordered to take remedial legal education and investigated for disbarment.

The attack on the U.S. Capitol that appalled even a majority of Republicans became a permanent stain on Trump’s record, one he will carry into any future elections. 

A moderate would've trounced Hobbs

In Arizona, the Republican Party is in disarray.

Democrat Katie Hobbs is now governor, and Democrat Kris Mayes is attorney general. They are doing what you expect Democrats to do when they win elections – they’re pressing their agenda on issues such as reproductive rights, public education and capital punishment, to name a few.

Hobbs announced she is determined to raise half a million dollars to flip the Arizona Legislature from Republican to Democrat in 2024.

Had Arizona Republicans elected more moderate GOP candidates last November, Hobbs would not be governor, longtime Arizona political consultant Chuck Coughlin has said.

Her defeat would have likely been in the double digits.

Which way, Republicans? Arizona or Florida?

Which takes us back to the national Republicans and 2024. Will they follow the Arizona model or the Florida model?

Democrats desperately hope they choose Brand Arizona and go all in on Trump.

Why?

Because, as former Democrat and L.A. writer Sasha Stone put it, “They can’t win otherwise.”

Perhaps Trump's most loyal voters have begun to sense that. At his March 25 rally in Waco, Texas, Trump went on a tear on DeSantis.

His crowd reacted in a way that seemed to even surprise him.

They were dead silent.

Phil Boas is an editorial columnist for The Arizona Republic, where this column first published. Follow him on Twitter: @boas_phil