Opinion: Jill Stein hammers Harris on Israel – and Trump reaps the benefit

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The most likely path to the White House for Vice President Kamala Harris runs through the "blue wall" states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

Harris is in a statistical tie with former President Donald Trump in those three states, according to a collection of polling compiled by RealClearPolitics.

But serious trouble is brewing for her in Michigan, home to one of the largest populations of Arab Americans, where angst about the scale of death and destruction in Gaza is growing to now include Lebanon during this week's observance of the first anniversary of the terrorist attacks Hamas launched on Israel.

Arab Americans, who used to back Democrats over Republicans by a ratio of 2-to-1, now are closer to an even split between the parties. That is not growing enthusiasm for Trump. America's support of Israel as an ally, through shipments of weapons used to kill Hamas but also tens of thousands of civilians in Gaza, is driving this disengagement.

But within that division there are more fractures. Abandon Harris, a new Muslim American organization seeking to defeat the vice president in swing states, on Monday endorsed Jill Stein of the Green Party for president.

Stein has made criticism of President Joe Biden's administration about Israel and Gaza a key component of her campaign.

Emgage Action, the political arm of a Muslim American voter organization founded in 2006, endorsed Harris last month and told me this week that the opposition from Abandon Harris to the vice president and the president started with conservative Muslims, alarmed by social issues like LGBTQ+ rights and gender identity before the Hamas attacks.

Abandon Harris launched late last year as Abandon Biden, when the incumbent was still aiming for a second term. And, like Biden, Harris has not figured out how to adequately balance an alliance with Israel with concerns about Gaza. If anything, her approach seems to be: Let's deal with that if I win the election.

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With so much uncertainty in this election, let's focus for just a moment on one thing we can be sure about – Stein is not going to win the presidency. Nonetheless, as in the 2016 election between Trump and Hillary Clinton when Stein was on the ballot, she could win enough votes along the margins in swing states to help tip the race one way or the other.

Don't take my word for it on Stein's chances. Listen to what one of her strongest backers, Kshama Sawant, said Sunday during a rally in Dearborn, Michigan, with Stein and Abandon Harris founder Hassan Abdel Salam.

"We are not in a position to win the White House, but we do have a real opportunity to win something historic," said Sawant, a Socialist and former member of the Seattle City Council. "We could deny Kamala Harris the state of Michigan. And the polls show that most likely Harris cannot win the election without Michigan.”

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There it was, the quiet-part-out-loud moment for Stein's campaign. If Stein can't win, but can help defeat Harris, then who becomes president? The only answer, of course, is Trump.

The RealClearPolitics polling average among all the presidential candidates shows Harris with a scant 1.8 percentage point lead over Trump in Michigan, with Stein at 1.3%.

Stein, who spoke after Sawant, tried to clean things up by claiming – improbably – that she could win the race because about a third of eligible voters didn't cast a ballot in 2020. What if, she wondered aloud, all those nonvoters suddenly became Stein supporters?

"I would not accept as written in stone that we are not going to the White House," Stein said with a slight chuckle that suggested maybe even she knew how implausible that was.

Harris is 'in trouble' in Michigan. Will it matter?

James Zogby, a pollster and Democratic National Committee member for three decades who co-founded the Arab American Institute, told me he was not impressed with the ability of Abandon Harris or Emgage Action "to drive Muslim voters" away from or toward Harris.

An Arab American Institute poll of registered voters released last week said the Biden administration's "handling of the crisis in Gaza" has eroded what had been 30 years of nearly 2-to-1 support for Democrats among Arab Americans down to a tie, with Harris at 42% and Trump at 41%.

And, Zogby told me, those supporting Harris "have a lower intensity of enthusiasm" about the election.

Opinion: Michigan and Wisconsin are key for Harris. GOP groups want to help her win them.

"So she's in trouble in Michigan, and it's not because of Abandon Biden," Zogby said. "It's because Democrats abandoned Arab Americans. They stopped talking to them."

Zogby was among the Harris supporters who urged her to have a Palestinian American speaker at the Democratic National Convention in August. That didn't happen, prompting a group of delegates from the "uncommitted" movement to protest outside the convention after withholding their votes in the primaries.

Zogby said his polling showed opportunity for Harris to regain support from Arab American voters, but only if she reaches out to them with some tangible solution to their concerns. With the election now four weeks away, that has to happen soon and in a way that is public enough to draw attention.

"I know they're mad at me for talking about this, but I frankly, I want her to win, and I want her to do something to demonstrate that she wants our support to win," Zogby said of the Harris campaign. "They can't say 'We need the Arab American vote in Michigan' and then do nothing to earn it."

I asked the Harris campaign and the Democratic National Committee this week what they make of Abandon Harris and the Stein endorsement. As with most aspects of this issue, they chose to remain silent.

Is that a winning strategy in what looks to be a squeaker of a race? Recent history suggests it is not.

Follow Paste BN elections columnist Chris Brennan on X, formerly known as Twitter: @ByChrisBrennan