How a battle for Congress in the cushy Arizona suburbs could change American politics

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The newly created 1st Congressional District in Arizona reflects the tectonic shifts underway in American politics.

Held now by Republican David Schweikert, serving his seventh term in Congress, it’s a place of affluence, with luxury homes and well-manicured landscapes throughout Scottsdale, Cave Creek, Paradise Valley and parts of north Phoenix.

These cushy suburbs were once the stronghold of Arizona Republicans, but no more. With the advent of Donald Trump and the beginning of a new political era in America, the wealthy suburbs have been moving toward the Democrats.

We are witnessing the “migration of the educated and affluent to the Democrats” while the “white working class and more recently a minority of the non-white working class” migrate to the Republicans, as the writer Michael Lind, a columnist for UnHerd and Tablet magazines, puts it.

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What to look for in 2024 Democratic primary

This change was not provoked by former President Trump.

In fact, it was perceptible as far back as the 1960s, Lind explained. But when Trump announced in 2015 he was running for president, “the traditional patterns of U.S. politics were shattering and crystallizing into new formations.”

Even more remarkable about Congressional District 1 as we approach the 2024 election year is the large number of accomplished Democrats who are eying the primary contest there for the opportunity to take on Schweikert.

If all the Democrats now considering a run for CD 1 eventually decide to dive in, the Democratic primary will feature one of the most gifted and diverse fields of candidates we’ve seen in Arizona politics.

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An early sign that this Democratic Primary will be formidable to all who enter may be the early exit of Jevin Hodge, the 29-year-old African American who outraised Schweikert in 2022 and was highly competitive – losing by less than a percentage point. Despite his unexpected strong performance and his near victory, Hodge has already bowed out, announcing he won’t run again for the seat. 

Hodge does so even as the district trends more toward his party. As Phoenix political consultant Chuck Coughlin told The Arizona Republic’s Tara Kavaler, “I’m pretty sure that district, over time, will become more Democratic.” 

Even without Hodge, who very well could have defeated Schweikert in a second try, the field is loaded and likely to grow stronger:

►Amish Shah, 45, a member of the Arizona House since 2019 and the son of Indian immigrants, announced he will be seeking the Democratic nomination for CD 1.

Once a team physician for the National Football League’s New York Jets, Shah is board certified in emergency room and sports medicine. He has a master’s degree in public health and works at the Mayo Clinic in Phoenix. 

►Andrei Cherny, 47, has been a stalwart of Arizona Democratic politics. At 21, he became history’s youngest White House speechwriter in the Clinton administration. He served as an officer in the Navy Reserve and was an assistant state attorney general. Cherny served as chairman of the Arizona Democratic Party and ran for Congress in 2012, losing to now-Sen. Kyrsten Sinema. 

Today a businessman, he is the son of immigrants who fled Russian-occupied Czechoslovakia. All four of his grandparents were Holocaust survivors. He has penned articles on culture, politics and history for The New York Times, The Washington Post and the Los Angeles Times and wrote a well-received book on the Berlin Airlift. 

►Also in the race is Scottsdale native Andrew Horne, an orthodontist schooled at Arizona State University and the University of Michigan. He had established a practice in Colorado before returning to Arizona to continue his career and leap into politics.

►Delina DiSanto, 66, who had run unsuccessfully in the overwhelmingly Republican Congressional District 4 in 2018 and 2020, including losing to Rep. Paul Gosar in the 2020 general election, will now try her luck in a more competitive arena. 

DiSanto is a registered nurse and owner of a construction company.  

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This race could be further elevated if another woman eyeing it now decides to run in the Democratic primary.

Marlene Galan Woods, a respected broadcast journalist over 20 years in the Phoenix and Los Angeles markets, told 12 News in January she is considering a run for Schweikert’s seat. Galan, who is Cuban American, said she was courted by both the Republican and Democratic parties after the November election.

She told 12 News she was a lifelong Republican who switched to the Democrats when Donald Trump was elected president. She chaired Democrat Adrian Fontes’ successful campaign for secretary of state.

For years Galan and former Arizona Attorney General Grant Woods, now deceased, were a power couple with strong ties to Arizona movers and shakers, including the McCain family. 

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Incumbent congressman is up to the challenge

Schweikert, the 61-year-old Republican incumbent, is no slouch himself. Now well into his second decade in Congress, he has risen in seniority to earn a seat on the powerful House Ways and Means Committee. 

He has been hobbled in recent years by ethical issues, having been disciplined for breaking campaign finance rules. He has also been damaged by his association to Trump, a relationship he has tried to finesse.

Regardless of the politics, the CD 1 race could feature an extraordinary mix of highly accomplished people from many varied backgrounds that should make us all feel better about Arizona politics and the kind of talent it can attract.

Phil Boas is an editorial columnist for The Arizona Republic, where this column first published. Follow him on Twitter: @boas_phil