Buckle up, liberals: Trump keeps winning, no matter how much progressives object | Opinion
I don't see anything short of a catastrophic economic free fall, which is unlikely but possible, stopping President Donald Trump from continuing full throttle, until the midterm elections.
I live in a liberal bubble, geographically and socially.
Arlington, Virginia, where I grew up and reside, depends on federal spending, perhaps more than any county in America. I’m the son of a lifelong federal employee (Air Force and civilian Department of Defense and CIA).
Most of the people I know and love are in various stages of outrage about the first weeks of President Donald Trump's second term. They join me in posting cries from the heart about what they believe are the latest violations of the Constitution; the laws being broken; the institutions being destroyed; the good people being fired who have spent their careers fighting cancer, investigating plane crashes or taking poison out of America's rivers.
Here’s a wake-up call for anyone who also may be living in a liberal bubble: Trump hasn’t been hurt yet in his public support because of his campaign to drastically reduce federal spending.
Trump is still reasonably popular at 49.4% approval, with disapproval at 47.5%, in the RealClearPolitics average. Former President Joe Biden would have killed for those numbers in his last year in office, although they are lower than Biden's were at this time in his presidency.
Layoffs are a common reality for most Americans
Why aren’t all the things that have outraged my fellow residents of Arlington being felt the same way around the country?
Because many Americans live in a world where layoffs are a fact of life when companies are struggling to cover operating costs − just as the federal government, with a $1.8 trillion deficit last year and a rapidly growing $36.5 trillion debt, is now.
It's also because bureaucrats have been demonized by conservatives for so long that many Americans don't see the value that federal employees add to their quality of life. Watching Washington go through in weeks what workers in Toledo and Youngstown, Ohio, and Allentown, Pennsylvania, have gone through for decades is not a tragedy for most Americans − it’s justice.
And give Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency credit. That offer of eight months severance given to most federal employees would have been a great deal for the vast majority of middle-class Americans.
If you are laid off after refusing such a generous offer, that's on you, according to many Americans' point of view.
When might DOGE's initiatives hurt Trump's numbers? If the cuts eventually hurt Middle America, but probably not before then.
Many Americans believe that the government class doesn't really care about them, even if some of the layoffs involve bureaucrats working on rural poverty or workers' safety.
Others believe that federal workers, who on average pull down higher salaries and enjoy better benefits that most Americans, have been protected from market realities for far too long.
Trump also is shielded by changes in the media environment. The story of these cuts is positive among conservative social media influencers, conservative commentators and conservative media outlets, including Fox News, National Review, the Wall Street Journal opinion section and OAN.
Until the potential consequences of the cuts start to affect more Americans, Trump's efforts to reduce the size and reach of government will be viewed positively by many citizens. And the public outrage of bureaucrats, now experiencing the workplace realities long faced by most other Americans, is a spectacle that some people love.
Conservatives still strongly support Trump
While a new Washington Post/Ipsos survey suggests that Trump’s aggressive moves are supported by only 45% of Americans, those actions are still favored by almost 85% of Republicans.
Polls released recently by Harvard University-Harris, Rasmussen Reports and The Economist/YouGov all had Trump at 50% or higher approval.
Even if his approval rating drops to 40% or 35%, Trump will retain his lock among conservatives, and that will keep moderate Republican senators like Maine's Susan Collins in line because they fear a primary challenge.
I don’t see anything short of a catastrophic economic free fall, which is unlikely but possible, stopping Trump from continuing full throttle, until the midterm elections.
And if he keeps even one congressional chamber in the midterms, the president can legitimately claim a degree of public support for what he’s doing.
So, buckle up, liberals. Trump is winning.
Jeremy Mayer is an associate professor in the Schar School of Policy and Government at George Mason University, where he also directs the master's and Ph.D. programs in political science.