Infatuation with Lakers, LeBron James creates future-book value
As age creeps up on LeBron James, the question arises if betting on the Los Angeles Lakers to win another NBA championship is an investment in purple and fool’s gold.
Only Kevin Durant’s Brooklyn Nets (+210) have better odds than the Lakers to complete the title journey that started Tuesday. The Lakers are +320, according to Tipico Sportsbook.
Saddled by a high-ankle sprain that cost James 26 games in a title-defense campaign, then sabotaged by a playoff injury to All-Star teammate Anthony Davis, the Lakers have nonetheless attracted more future betting tickets than any other team, the nation’s most prominent bookmakers tell USA Today Sports+.
“They’re the only team in which we have six-figure liability," said Jeff Sherman, who most closely monitors Las Vegas’ Westgate Superbook. “They’re No. 1 in ticket count and No. 1 in money wagered by large margins. We took out largest wager yet in the future pool on them. Someone bet $28,571.45 to win $100,000.
“You always see that kind of support on the Lakers, and that kind of support around LeBron’s team. People always think he has the right help around him even though they’re an aged team. When they got (veteran guard Russell) Westbrook, I naturally lowered their odds because I knew people would bet them. And they have.”
Brooklyn Nets get backing despite drama
While the defending-champion Milwaukee Bucks (+750) stand with the Nets and Lakers as the only teams with less than 10/1 odds, the popularity contest aspect of title betting has left several strong contenders offering tantalizing payouts to those tempted by their charms.
The reunion of Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson has the former champion Warriors at +1000. Last season’s No. 1 Western Conference seed Utah Jazz are at +1300 along with the conference-finalist Clippers.
Returning finalist the Phoenix Suns are at +1500 while substantial +3000 odds have been tagged on returning Eastern Conference finalist Atlanta Hawks and MVP favorite Luka Doncic and the Dallas Mavericks.
“(Doncic) can carry that team, and I can recall taking a lot of money on the Hawks to win it last year at 100/1, so the books are very relieved to have them go out in the Eastern finals,” said BetMGM’s director of trading Jeff Stoneback. “Yet, here (the Hawks) are again, still with good odds, with (point guard Trae) Young getting another year under his belt.”
All of the teams have doubts to address. How will the Nets navigate the Kyrie Irving COVID vaccination drama? What happens to the +2000 76ers with Ben Simmons’ exodus appearing increasingly likely following his one-game suspension?
Westgate’s Sherman isn’t too bothered by Brooklyn’s chaos, viewing the Nets as a strong choice over Giannis Antetokounmpo and the defending champions.
“(Milwaukee) open moved down because of the support we’ve seen, but you can look back last year and see how even with that banged-up Nets team, Durant was an inch away from eliminating them," Sherman said. “We even had the Nets higher power-rated than Milwaukee on Tuesday, with Irving out of the lineup.”
Stoneback, referring to James, in his 19th season, and the Lakers as "geriatric," is drawn to the Warriors along with a formidable crowd of bettors.
"They’re No. 2 in tickets ... yes, we’re always gonna get Lakers’ bets, but the public is in, as they should be with those two (Curry and Thompson),” Stoneback said.
Sherman explained, “We went into the postseason setting (Golden State) at low odds because they’ve got that expensive (Andrew) Wiggins contract and assets to trade all the way through the trade deadline … they easily can add another good player to the team they’ve got. So we’re trying to be anticipatory with them.”
Not a lot of respect for Jazz, Nuggets, Clippers
A harsh reflection on Phoenix’s run to the championship series, by defeating the Davis-less Lakers, the Denver Nuggets without Jamal Murray and the Clippers without Kawhi Leonard, triggered the bookmakers to flee from support.
“Very good team, but they had a path with a lot of fortune. Things broke perfectly last year. Very hard to get that repeated," Sherman said.
The Western Conference depth is made most obvious by the oddsmakers’ belief that waiting for the injured Murray and Leonard to return may keep the Nuggets and Clippers out of the playoffs entirely.
Then again, an early return by either could propel a deep playoff run.
Even the Jazz struggle for respect in the cold glare of those predicting the teams’ fate and the experienced bettors unwilling to risk their funds on the title-less franchise.
“They’re not a team that attracts money. No matter the results they get on the court, what we see in the playoffs is they’ve put a premium on the regular season trying to get a top seed. It doesn’t always translate,” Sherman said. “So we put a number on them to attract some support, and it has – at least for them to win the conference.”
The Bulls, Trail Blazers and Knicks are at +6000, and the Pelicans are +7000. Memphis is +8000, but astute players have moved to bet the Grizzlies will win more than 41.5 games.
Sherman identified the Lakers as the most undervalued wager. At Caesars Sportsbook, the Lakers are tops in total dollars wagered, with a whopping 51 percent of the action.
“Traditionally, we’ve always seen larger bets on the teams with shorter odds. We saw it in the NFL this preseason on Kansas City and Tampa Bay. There's no exception," Sherman said.
“The Dodgers are our only MLB liability left in the playoffs and they’ve been at 4/1 or lower all year. Those lower numbers are where people have the most faith, and they’re most willing to back it. Or sometimes, it’s just a person coming out making a bet so they can hold that ticket and have something to root for all year.”