Canelo Alvarez vs. Amir Khan for WBC middleweight title: Who will win and why

LAS VEGAS - If challenger Amir Khan can pull out a victory against middleweight champion Canelo Alvarez on Saturday night, it could rank as one of boxing's biggest upsets since smaller but quicker Manny Pacquiao sent Oscar De La Hoya into retirement in 2008.

Trying to find someone who is picking Khan to win in boxing's inaugural fight card at the new T-Mobile Arena is like trying to find a contact lens in the middle of a football field. Nearly impossible, unless you ask a writer from the United Kingdom, and then Khan, from Bolton, England, gets some love. UK writers are loyal to their countrymen, to a fault.

That's not to say this won't be a good, watchable, exciting fight for as long as it lasts (HBO pay-per-view, 9 p.m. ET). Khan (31-3, 19 KOs) is a very skilled boxer with some of the quickest hands in the sport. He has faced some top-tier fighters in his career, and has seldom, if ever, turned in an unworthy or unwatchable performance.

The same can be said about Canelo. The red-headed Mexican superstar (46-1-1, 32 KOs) has lost only to Floyd Mayweather, the most skilled boxer of this era, whom he fought at an inexperienced age of 22. Khan likes to say he's got the edge in experience, and including his amateur career he might be right. But Canelo, who made his professional debut at age 15, has boxed 323 rounds as a pro to Khan's 203.

De La Hoya, the CEO and founder of Golden Boy Promotions, which handles Canelo, says his fighter is "100 times better" than he was when he fought Mayweather in 2013 and lost by majority decision (A travesty, that score, but that's another story).

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Khan, who is guaranteed $2 million, says he did not take this bout out of desperation, which many figured after he chased Mayweather and Pacquiao around for the last 18 months or so trying to get a fight against one of them. When that never materialized, he considered everything and came to the conclusion that he could beat Canelo, who is guaranteed $3.5 million but both fighters are expected to take home much more than that from PPV upside.

"I've always wanted to be in a big fight, but if it was against someone who was too heavy and unbeatable, then it would be a problem," Khan said this week. "But I sat down and saw a few fights of Canelo's and thought, 'You know, this guy's beatable. The last guy to beat him was Mayweather, who outboxed him and beat him.

"He's had very tough fights against (Erislandy) Lara, and Austin Trout, and a good boxer would give him big problems, and I think I'm a good boxer who could give him those problems. So it made sense to where it's a big fight but it's a fight I could win for a world title."

Both fighters weighed in Friday at 155 pounds, the catch weight for this bout. But by fight time on Saturday, Canelo is expected to weigh a good 10 pounds more than Khan.

"I have to take full advantage of all my advantages and my virtues, so I'm going to take advantage of that," Canelo said about the size difference. "If a knockout comes, it comes. But I'm not going in there thinking knockout because things don't come out the same way when you focus on looking for the knockout."

This fight has been billed as Khan's speed versus Canelo's power. But the Mexican says there's much more to his game than simply power.

"I don't go in there thinking about power. Everybody thinks, until they get in the ring, that it's just about power," Canelo said this week. "I'm going to show a lot more than power, because there's a lot more to me than just power. When (Khan) steps in the ring on Saturday, he'll find out, and you'll all see."

According to CompuBox statistics, Khan has averaged nearly 13 total punches thrown per round more than Canelo in his fights (55.1 to 42.2) and in power punches (28.0 to 24.1), but Canelo has been more accurate, connecting on 11.4 power punches per round (47.3%) to Khan's 12.4 (44.3%).

How I see it: Khan's only hope of winning, in my opinion, is to avoid Canelo's big punch and take the fight the distance, as Mayweather and Lara and Trout did, outboxing his opponent and exposing Canelo's slower feet. Canelo has been known to tire in later rounds, but he seems to be in great shape for this fight. He stayed with it against Miguel Cotto, but Cotto was 10 years older, too, and he tired.

Canelo is a pressure fighter and will put the pressure on Khan from the opening bell. Canelo is also a great counter-puncher, and Khan admitted this week that the shots that put him down in the past were almost always counterpunches. He also admitted that he didn't think he could hurt Canelo, though I'm not sure I believe that.

Khan will look good early, using his quick hands and feet to move around and avoid the big punch while outworking Canelo, using his jab to keep Canelo at bay. But Khan is a warrior and likes to fight. He likes to exchange. He's not a runner. At some point he will be sucked into a fight with Canelo, and that will ultimately be his downfall. I believe the big shot will happen sometime in the sixth round, and Canelo will win by stoppage and retain his belt. Then talk will immediately turn to Triple G.

The verdict: Canelo KO6

(Photo of Canelo and Khan after the weigh-in by John Gurzinski, AFP/Getty Images)