Line-move system provides comfort in taking Ohio State Buckeyes and all those points
We all have our opinions, but one of the more effective tools in sports betting is to sit back and let those with more money express theirs first.
In this week’s college football version of “Hot Tix and Picks,” we’re going to bank a bit on the activity of the sharps, those cash-filled-briefcase types who alter a game’s point spread with one bet.
As we referenced here last week, while it can also be shrewd to see what oddsmakers tell us by setting surprising lines – such as unranked Wisconsin’s favored status over top-25 occupant Purdue before the Badgers whipped the Boilermakers by 17 – sharps also tip their hands before kickoff.
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That brings us to our preferential treatment of the line-move system when betting action causes a game’s point spread to shift by two or more points. Typically, it’s the well-stocked bettor who’s capable of manipulating the lines.
And it’s the wise followers who can inspect and support those wagers with their own investments, which can further alter the number.
As we review where the greatest amount of money is going this week in college football, it’s notable that the top three of these hot-ticket teams are line-moving events.
No. 5 Ohio State -18.5 vs. No. 17 Penn State
Tipico Sportsbook reports their opening line has inflated two points as the Buckeyes move toward the top-four before Tuesday’s release of the first College Football Playoff rankings. Quarterback C.J. Stroud blitzed Indiana for four touchdown passes last week while the Nittany Lions are reeling from losses to Indiana and Iowa.
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Syracuse -6 vs. Boston College
The Orangemen have lost three games by 3 points in the past four weeks, but they’ve also scored 30 or more points in three of the past four, stoking the notion that they’ll win comfortably over the last-place Eagles. Boston College has scored 14, seven and 13 points in its three consecutive conference losses.
Old Dominion +4.5 vs. Louisiana Tech
At home this week, the Monarchs make picking them a tough swallow as they enter on a five-game losing streak. But the Conference-USA rival Bulldogs (2-5) aren’t exactly distinguished, coming off a drubbing at the hands of No. 22 UT-San Antonio and a field-goal effort at UTEP.
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Texas +125 money line at No. 18 Baylor
The Longhorns are three-point underdogs to the Bears (6-1), yet stand as the most popular ticket at Tipico. Bettors obviously are moved to the Longhorns’ pedigree as Texas comes off a bye week that might’ve helped them heal from those consecutive losses to Oklahoma State and Oklahoma.
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No. 10 Iowa +3.5 at Wisconsin
The Hawkeyes generated more betting tickets than any team at the Westgate Superbook in in Las Vegas and ranked second to Texas at Tipico. Haven’t we learned our lesson? It’s playing with fire going against an unranked favorite, as the Badgers proved last week.
Bonus: Utah -6.5 vs. UCLA
Unbeaten at home and looking to remain tied atop the Pac-12 South standings with Arizona State – whom they’ve already defeated – the Utes stood as the most popular ticket at Westgate as the weekend neared.
FIRST LOOK: UCLA at Utah odds and lines
As for the “hot picks” …
No. 7 Michigan State +4 at No. 6 Michigan
We’re deviating a bit from what we’d rather do here, which is relying on some established systems. Well, the intensity of a rivalry like this makes it uncertain how this battle of unbeatens will transpire, so that is something.
Still, the game is so big, we just have to include it in this week’s touts. Wolverines head coach Jim Harbaugh yearns so greatly to bring his school back to championship prominence, and it’s all before him here, but something continues to interrupt his effort, and the rival Spartans will be happy to oblige here.
Bettors are expecting defense to influence the outcome. They’ve made the under 52.5 the third-most popular bet at Tipico.
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San Diego State -1 vs. Fresno State
Again, sort of a reckless route here, but – let’s be honest – this happens all the time. Some friends of mine have invited me to this game, my hometown Aztecs are unbeaten at 7-0 and ranked No. 20. It’s a game begging to be supported by a wager.
And a week after their impressive road venture to win in the altitude at Air Force, we’ll invest in SDSU to top their stubborn nearest pursuer in the Mountain West’s West division and pay for our ticket all at the same time.
Liberty -36.5 vs. UMass
Getting back to business, the independent Flames (6-2) emerged as a darling of “sharps” money in this spot against the 1-6 Minutemen, standing as the second-most popular bet in terms of money laid late this week at Westgate Superbook.
Houston -1 vs. No. 16 SMU
The 7-0 Mustangs are small road ‘dogs against the Cougars, who’ve won six straight. With the total at 61.5, expect a high-scoring Texas battle with the home team emerging with the triumph.
Mississippi State -1 vs. No. 12 Kentucky
Another one of those games where a foreigner to this lofty of a ranking goes on the road to truly reveal its merits. The SEC is a merciless march, and after the exposure of last week’s loss to No. 1 Georgia, the Wildcats are humbled some more here.